Latin America Economics Weekly Fed tightening and the fallout for Latin America The US Fed's tightening cycle is unlikely to be a major concern for much of Latin America, although Chile's large current account deficit may become a growing vulnerability. The Fed’s move may also... 18th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP (Q4 2021) The 1.8% q/q rise in Chile’s GDP in Q4 kept output well above its pre-pandemic trend but, with the economy now coming back down to earth, there is a growing chance of a recession this year. Meanwhile... 18th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: Three key challenges facing President Boric Chile’s newly-inaugurated President Boric is inheriting a slowing economy which is likely to slip into a recession this year. But his government will still have to push through significant fiscal... 15th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update New forecasts for Lat Am inflation & rates We estimate that the impact of higher fuel, food and potentially goods prices triggered by the war in Ukraine will add roughly 1.0%-pt to headline inflation rates across major Latin American economies... 10th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Surging commodity prices & Argentine subsidies The recent surge in commodity prices has given a boost to most Latin American currencies and it is generally seen as good news for the region. But not all economies will benefit. Chile's external... 4th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Fresh headwinds appear The easing of Omicron waves, and loosening of restrictions, across Latin America will have given a lift to recoveries in recent weeks, but the fallout from the Russia-Ukraine crisis presents a fresh... 24th February 2022 · 16 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Omicron risks fading, but headwinds remain Large Omicron waves have caused activity to weaken in many EMs in Q1, but the good news is that mobility appears to bounce back quickly once outbreaks subside. As a result, the economic hit is likely... 22nd February 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update High oil prices more harm than good for Lat Am Persistently high oil prices would bode ill for current account positions in much of Latin America, adding to the existing vulnerabilities in Chile. It would also keep inflation elevated, leading to... 16th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus A closer look at current account risks in Lat Am We expect that falls in commodity prices will cause current account positions to worsen across the region this year. While external positions will remain secure in most major Latin American economies... 4th February 2022 · 13 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s central bank not waiting around The decision by Chile’s central bank to deliver a surprisingly large 150bp rate hike yesterday, to 5.50%, supports our view that the tightening cycle will go further than the path it had previously... 27th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Some good news on the political front Political risk will be a major theme once again in Latin America this year, although recent developments have given cause for cautious optimism. Chilean President-elect Boric’s appointment of Mario... 25th January 2022 · 11 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly What does FinMin Marcel mean for Chile? President-elect Boric’s announcement today that (now outgoing) Governor of the Central Bank, Mario Marcel, will be Chile’s next Finance Minister is a clear signal that his government will pursue... 21st January 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Falling to the back of the pack The regional recovery will lag further behind others in the emerging world in the coming years. The Omicron-led surge in virus cases presents a risk to growth in the near term, but we suspect that the... 20th January 2022 · 25 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Current account risks building in Em. Europe & Lat Am The shift to current account surpluses in Indonesia and South Africa suggest that these economies may be better placed to weather any fallout from rising US interest rates than in the past. But... 18th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Omicron sweeps across the emerging world The Omicron variant of COVID-19 is causing new virus cases to surge in the emerging world. Many EMs are reporting record daily cases or that new infections are rising sharply. South Africa’s... 14th January 2022 · 10 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America: five key calls for 2022 We think that Latin American GDP growth will slow by more than most expect in 2022, while inflation will also drop more a bit more quickly than the consensus anticipates. This feeds into our... 10th January 2022 · 4 mins read
