Latin America Economics Weekly Chile’s protests three years on, COP drop This week marked the third anniversary of a large wave of protests in Chile which set in motion a shift towards looser fiscal policy, have left the political landscape difficult to navigate and caused... 21st October 2022 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: tightening cycle has ended but rates will stay high Chile’s central bank (BCCh) became the latest in the emerging world to end its tightening cycle yesterday. But with inflation only likely to fall back towards target in late-2023 and the external... 13th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Inflation at a turning point Latin American currencies have come under pressure this month which will put further upward pressure on inflation, but the bigger picture is that headline rates are at, or close to, a peak across the... 27th September 2022 · 12 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s Tango with the IMF, tightening cycles This week’s news that Argentina will receive the next tranche of its IMF deal has caused near-term debt risks to ease. But the Fund has still not addressed the overvalued exchange rate, which could... 23rd September 2022 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Fiscal risks loom largest in Brazil and Colombia The improvement in government budget positions across Latin America over the past year or so has been driven in large part by temporary factors and is likely to reverse before long. As things stand... 22nd September 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile goes back to the drawing board The surprisingly strong rejection of Chile’s proposed new constitution has eased concerns about a radical shake up of the country’s economic model. But the constitutional process is set to continue... 9th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: nearing the end of the tightening cycle The Monetary Policy Report released by Chile’s central bank today, following on from its larger-than-expected 100bp rate increase to 10.75% yesterday, suggests that its tightening cycle is drawing to... 7th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s consumer boom, Chile’s referendum The surge in consumer spending in Brazil shown in the Q2 GDP figures released this week was partly driven by temporary government support measures. But improvements in the labour market, coupled with... 2nd September 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile at a turning point Chile’s new constitution, which will be put to the people in a referendum this coming Sunday, would usher in sweeping changes to the country’s current economic model. Even if the constitution is... 1st September 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly External risks, Banxico minutes, Massa’s orthodoxy Current account figures released this week go a long way to explaining the diverging performance between the Mexican and the Chilean pesos. While we expect both to weaken over the coming months, there... 26th August 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Lula’s plan for state banks, Q2 GDP Suggestions this week by Brazil's presidential front runner Lula that state banks will play a bigger role would only aggravate some of the underlying problems in the country’s economy. Elsewhere, the... 19th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP (Q2) Chile’s economy merely stagnated in Q2 and the chances are high that it will fall into recession over the second half of the year. Meanwhile, current account risks are continuing to build – with the... 18th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile’s constitution cost, Massa & Argentina’s mess A recent report suggesting that provisions in Chile’s draft new constitution could increase annual government spending by 9-14% of GDP underscores that the country is shifting towards the state... 5th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s new superministry, Chile minutes The appointment of Sergio Massa as head of Argentina’s newly-created economic “superministry” provides some hope that the government will stick to its latest IMF deal but, even so, meeting the Fund’s... 29th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s trade deficit, Chilean peso’s rollercoaster The somewhat surprising widening of Colombia’s trade deficit in May suggests that the current account deficit isn’t narrowing as we’d expected. This will keep the peso on the backfoot and the central... 22nd July 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s election giveaways, panic stations in Chile The rapid rise in inflation and sharp falls in the peso have clearly spooked Chile’s central bank and we now expect the policy rate to reach 11.0%, from 9.75% now, which puts us on the hawkish side of... 15th July 2022 · 5 mins read
