Latin America Economics Update Fiscal risks loom largest in Brazil and Colombia The improvement in government budget positions across Latin America over the past year or so has been driven in large part by temporary factors and is likely to reverse before long. As things stand... 22nd September 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile goes back to the drawing board The surprisingly strong rejection of Chile’s proposed new constitution has eased concerns about a radical shake up of the country’s economic model. But the constitutional process is set to continue... 9th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: nearing the end of the tightening cycle The Monetary Policy Report released by Chile’s central bank today, following on from its larger-than-expected 100bp rate increase to 10.75% yesterday, suggests that its tightening cycle is drawing to... 7th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s consumer boom, Chile’s referendum The surge in consumer spending in Brazil shown in the Q2 GDP figures released this week was partly driven by temporary government support measures. But improvements in the labour market, coupled with... 2nd September 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile at a turning point Chile’s new constitution, which will be put to the people in a referendum this coming Sunday, would usher in sweeping changes to the country’s current economic model. Even if the constitution is... 1st September 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly External risks, Banxico minutes, Massa’s orthodoxy Current account figures released this week go a long way to explaining the diverging performance between the Mexican and the Chilean pesos. While we expect both to weaken over the coming months, there... 26th August 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Lula’s plan for state banks, Q2 GDP Suggestions this week by Brazil's presidential front runner Lula that state banks will play a bigger role would only aggravate some of the underlying problems in the country’s economy. Elsewhere, the... 19th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP (Q2) Chile’s economy merely stagnated in Q2 and the chances are high that it will fall into recession over the second half of the year. Meanwhile, current account risks are continuing to build – with the... 18th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile’s constitution cost, Massa & Argentina’s mess A recent report suggesting that provisions in Chile’s draft new constitution could increase annual government spending by 9-14% of GDP underscores that the country is shifting towards the state... 5th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s new superministry, Chile minutes The appointment of Sergio Massa as head of Argentina’s newly-created economic “superministry” provides some hope that the government will stick to its latest IMF deal but, even so, meeting the Fund’s... 29th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s trade deficit, Chilean peso’s rollercoaster The somewhat surprising widening of Colombia’s trade deficit in May suggests that the current account deficit isn’t narrowing as we’d expected. This will keep the peso on the backfoot and the central... 22nd July 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s election giveaways, panic stations in Chile The rapid rise in inflation and sharp falls in the peso have clearly spooked Chile’s central bank and we now expect the policy rate to reach 11.0%, from 9.75% now, which puts us on the hawkish side of... 15th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Inflation near a peak, but little comfort for central banks Inflation rose to multi-decade highs in much of Latin America last month and, while it should peak in Q3, headline rates will remain uncomfortably high for some time. Central banks in the region... 14th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Capital outflows from EMs picked up over the past month and are likely to persist over the rest of the year. That’s a particular threat to those EMs whose current account deficits have widened or are... 12th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jun.) The increases in inflation in Brazil (to 11.9% y/y) and Chile (to 12.5% y/y) last month set the ground for 50bp hikes in policy rates at their respective central banks’ next meetings (in Chile’s case... 8th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s economy heading into choppy waters Having defied gravity in 2021, this year is shaping up to be much tougher for Chile’s economy and we think that the economy will contract in both Q3 and Q4. Despite the weakening growth outlook, high... 5th July 2022 · 2 mins read
