Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s central bank suggests more hikes to come The big news from yesterday’s central bank meeting in Brazil isn’t the decision to raise interest rates to a three-year high of 12.25% - this was expected by pretty much everyone. Instead, the major... 22nd January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s housing market starting to cool Good news remains thin on the ground in Brazil, but we take some comfort from the fact that the country’s frothy housing market has so far managed to avoid a hard landing. It’s still early days, but... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Where do we stand relative to the consensus? We have revised down many of our forecasts in recent weeks and, on the whole, expect GDP growth and inflation in Latin America to be lower than the consensus forecasts this year. As a result... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Ominous signs from Lat Am current accounts Balance of payments problems in Venezuela and Argentina have deflected attention away from the fact that current account positions across much of the rest of Latin America have deteriorated... 12th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Dec.) The drop in Brazilian inflation in December was enough to ensure that the central bank met its target for 2014 but doesn’t spell the end of the country’s inflation battle. We expect it grind lower... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Nov.) & Chile CPI (Dec.) The sharp fall in Brazil industrial production in November leaves it on course to contract in Q4 and suggests the economy ended 2014 on a predictably weak footing. GDP is likely to have done little... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 Consumer Prices (Dec.) & Unemp. (Nov.) Data to the middle of this month suggest that inflation is on track to fall back within target range in December. However, we doubt that this will be enough to prevent policymakers from raising... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of the latest currency sell-off The fall in most Latin American currencies over the past few weeks has taken them through both our end-2014 and our end-2015 forecasts. We still expect most currencies – notably the Brazilian real –... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Nov.) The 0.5% m/m increase in consumer prices in Brazil in November was enough to keep the annual rate of inflation above the upper bound of the central bank’s target range for the fourth consecutive month... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: 50bp hike does not mark start of aggressive tightening The Central Bank of Brazil stepped up the pace of policy tightening last night but the accompanying statement gave a strong signal that future interest rate hikes are likely to be gradual. This... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Oct.) Having only just managed to limp out of recession in Q3, October’s industrial production data suggest that Brazil’s economy continued to struggle at the start of Q4. 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico & Brazil Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The November manufacturing PMI surveys continue to point to a sustained acceleration in Mexican manufacturing growth over the coming months. By contrast, another fall in the Brazilian PMI signals a... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q3) The 0.1% q/q increase in Brazil GDP in Q3 means that the economy has limped out of recession, but the weakness of growth underlines the scale of the challenge facing the new team of economic... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Two cheers for Brazil’s new economic team The announcement of a new economic team in Brazil – and the nomination of Joaquim Levy as Finance Minister in particular – will strengthen hopes for a return to more orthodox policies during President... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 Consumer Prices (Nov.) The further decline in Brazilian inflation in the first half of November will be welcomed by policymakers, not least because the headline rate fell back into the target range for the first time since... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Can we trust Brazil’s fiscal figures? The official data published by the Brazilian authorities give a false impression of the country’s fiscal health. We estimate that various accounting tricks have helped to narrow the reported... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
