Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jun.) June’s industrial production data from Brazil, while better than expected, are still consistent with GDP falling by the most since the depths of the global financial crisis in Q2. 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil hikes rates, tightening cycle probably over The decision by Brazil’s monetary policy committee (COPOM) to raise interest rates by another 50bp to 14.25% was largely expected, but the move to signal the end of the tightening cycle in the... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s credit bubble deflating, consumers feel the squeeze A combination of increases in policy interest rates and curbs on lending by some public banks is taking some of the air out of Brazil’s credit bubble. So far it seems that the bubble is deflating... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jul.) The further rise in Brazil’s inflation in the first half of this month means that another 50bp hike in the Selic interest rate at next week’s COPOM meeting is almost a certainty. But there are signs... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Ethanol demand in Brazil to support sugar price Rising ethanol output in Brazil to meet domestic demand should help lift the price of sugar this year. We forecast the benchmark price at end-year at 13.5 US cents per pound, up from 12.3 cents today. 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jun.) The rise in inflation in Brazil to 8.9% y/y last month probably seals the deal for another 50bp hike in the benchmark Selic interest rate at this month’s COPOM meeting. Elsewhere, inflation in Chile... 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Political crisis deepens in Brazil Brazil’s political crisis has deepened over the past few weeks, with the latest testimonies in the so-called “car wash” probe bringing allegations of corruption at Petrobras a step closer to the door... 6th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rising demand and tighter supply to lift arabica prices High Brazilian exports have kept the coffee market well supplied and prices down. But we think lower global stocks and continued demand growth will support prices over the second half of the year. 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (May) The 0.6% m/m increase in Brazil industrial production in May supports the message from last month’s PMI (released yesterday) that the economy could be nearing a bottom. We wouldn’t get too carried... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil inflation report suggests more tightening to come The Central Bank of Brazil’s Q2 Inflation Report gives the clearest indication yet that policymakersbelieve they have more work to do in the fight against inflation. We’ve pencilled in another... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Changes to Brazil’s inflation target reinforce hawkish message The changes announced by Brazil’s government to the central bank’s inflation target are small in thegrand scheme of things but reinforce the overall message that policymakers are serious about getting... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jun.) & Econ. Act. (Apr.) Brazil’s economic data are going from bad to worse. Figures to the middle of this month suggest that inflation is now running at close to 9% y/y. Meanwhile, the central bank’s Economic Activity... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (May) The larger-than-expected rise in Brazilian inflation to 8.5% y/y last month was driven entirely by an increase in food inflation as well as regulated price hikes. Meanwhile, the infrastructure... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil hikes rates; attention now turns to Inflation Report The decision by Brazil’s monetary policy committee (COPOM) to raise interest rates by another 50bp to 13.75% was expected, but the fact that the accompanying statement was left unchanged from the last... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Apr.) We’re running out of words to describe just how bad conditions are in Brazil’s industrial sector. The fall in production in April means that industry has now contracted in five of the past six months... 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMI (May) May’s manufacturing PMIs from Latin America make for pretty gloomy reading, with the headline indices in both Brazil and Mexico edging down. It’s worth noting that neither series has been a... 1st June 2015 · 1 min read
