Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Oct.) The 11.2% y/y fall in Brazilian industrial production in October was even worse than September’s 10.9% y/y decline, and adds to evidence that the economy’s deep recession continued at the start of Q4... 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The further fall in Brazil’s manufacturing PMI in November, to a fresh five-year low of 43.8, adds to evidence that the economy is yet to bottom out. The data are broadly consistent with industrial... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q3) Third quarter GDP data from Brazil made for grim reading, with the economy contracting by a larger-than-expected 1.7% q/q and falls earlier in the year revised higher. As a result, it seems likely... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian markets continue to recover Brazil’s financial markets have come under pressure in recent days following the escalation of corruption allegations at state-owned oil company Petrobras, but the bigger picture is that they have... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brazil Sugar Production (1st Nov. – 16th Nov.) Figures released today by Brazil’s Sugarcane Industry Association, UNICA, show that 25.6 million tonnes of cane were harvested in the first half of November in the main South-Central cane-growing... 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Nov.) The latest rise in Brazilian inflation, to a 12-year high of 10.3% y/y in the first half of this month, was due to a combination of a rise in food inflation, which appears to be due to a weaker real... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Economic Activity Indicator (Sep.) The huge 6.2% y/y decline in Brazil’s Economic Activity Indicator in September was the steepest fall on record and, at face value, is consistent with a contraction in GDP of close to 5% y/y over Q3 as... 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brazil Sugar Production (16th Oct. – 1st Nov.) Figures released today by Brazil’s Sugarcane Industry Association, UNICA, show that 38.4 million tonnes of cane were harvested in the second half of October in the main South-Central cane-growing... 10th November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil, Chile & Colombia Consumer Prices (Oct.) October’s rise in Brazilian inflation, to 9.9% y/y, was due in part to a fresh increase in regulated fuel prices, but it looks like the recent slide in the real also played a role. Elsewhere in Latin... 6th November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Sep.) The 10.9% y/y fall in Brazilian industrial production in September, coming on the back of similarly steep falls in output July and August, means that the sector probably subtracted around 2.0%-pts... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) The drop in Brazil’s manufacturing PMI in October, to a five-year low of 44.1, is an early (and ominous sign) that the country’s recession continued into Q4. Perhaps the one crumb of comfort in today... 3rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Has Brazil succumbed to “fiscal dominance”? The decision by Brazil’s central bank not to raise interest rates last week has sparked a debate over whether Latin America’s largest economy has succumbed to “fiscal dominance” – whereby fiscal... 27th October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Oct.) The latest rise in inflation in Brazil, to a 12-year high of 9.8% y/y in the first half of this month, was driven by another increase in regulated fuel prices and was in line with expectations. It is... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil downturn to shift from investment to consumers The primary driver of the slump in Brazil’s economy over the past year has been a collapse in business investment. We expect this to ease towards the end of this year – with consumer spending taking... 19th October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Economic Activity Indicator (Aug.) The 4.5% y/y drop in Brazil’s Economic Activity Indicator in August suggests that the country’s recession probably deepened over Q3 as a whole. The monthly activity data suggest that this... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rising Brazilian soybean production to push prices lower Although the USDA has revised down its forecasts for this year’s US corn, wheat and soybean harvests, we think ample global supplies will push prices down over the remainder of the year. 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
