Latin America Economics Update Why Brazil’s real could hold on to its recent gains Given the extent of its rally over the past couple of months it’s difficult to make the case that the Brazilian real will now strengthen much further from here. But by the same token, we think there... 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jun.) The strong increase in Brazilian industrial production in June was encouraging and, coming on the back of rises in output in both April and May, it looks like the sector added to q/q GDP growth for... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry strengthens at the start of Q3 The sharp rise in the aggregate EM PMI in July suggests that after a brief pause in Q2, the recovery in EM industry resumed at the start of the third quarter. The improvement was driven largely by... 1st August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMIs (July) The jump in Brazil’s manufacturing PMI in July adds to the evidence that the economy has finally begun to turn the corner. Meanwhile, the fall in Mexico’s PMI suggests that the slowdown in the... 1st August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: the economic impact of the 2016 Olympic Games Despite hopes to the contrary, the Rio Games are unlikely to provide much of a boost to Brazil’s economy. We expect the country’s recession to ease further over the coming quarters, but this has... 1st August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil turning the corner The downturn in Latin America appears to have bottomed out in the second quarter of this year. Our GDP Tracker suggests that the region’s economy contracted by 1.2% y/y in Q2, compared to 1.5% y/y in... 27th July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (July) The uptick in Brazilian inflation in the first half of this month was modest but it will reinforce the hawkish tone set by last night’s COPOM statement. Our base case is that interest rate cuts will... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jun.) The drop in Brazil inflation, from 9.3% in May to 8.9% in June, should be followed by further falls over the coming months. That said, our view remains that the central bank will resist lowering... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil inflation set to fall but interest rate cuts to be gradual We expect inflation in Brazil to fall back over the next year but, despite a recent repricing, the centralbank may still not cut interest rates as quickly as the markets expect. 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Ind. Prod. (May) & Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) The stagnation in Brazilian industrial production in May was disappointing, coming on the back of growth in the two previous months, but the bigger picture is that the underlying trend is improving... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (May) Having fallen in each of the past three months, inflation in Brazil was unchanged at 9.3% y/y in May. We suspect that this is a temporary blip rather than the start of a new trend and think inflation... 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Apr.) Brazilian industrial production rose for the second consecutive month in April and, coming on the back of yesterday’s better-than-expected GDP data, adds to signs that economic conditions are starting... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q1) The drop in Brazil Q1 GDP was much smaller than had been expected but only because of a jump in government spending. With fiscal policy set to tighten over the second half of the year, this prop to... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil fiscal package: lofty rhetoric, but implementation a risk Brazil’s Finance Minister, Henrique Meirelles, has unveiled the first part of his planned fiscal adjustment. Our initial take is that the plans are lofty in ambition, but so far lacking in detail... 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (May) The rise in Brazilian inflation in the first half of this month, to 9.6% y/y, from 9.3% y/y over April as a whole, was disappointing given that it followed declines in the previous three months. Today... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
