Latin America Data Response Brazil Current Account (Feb.) February’s balance of payments data will do little to ease investor’s concerns about Brazil’s current account deficit. Although the 12-month rolling deficit narrowed a touch in dollar terms, it... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A closer look at the jump in Brazilian inflation We estimate that all of the jump in inflation in Brazil over the past year can be explained by increases in government-regulated prices and a drought-related rise in food costs. Both of these effects... 23rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Political crisis now biggest threat to Brazil’s economy The corruption scandal at state-owned oil company, Petrobras, has developed over the past week or so into a full-blown national political crisis that, in our view, is now the biggest headwind facing... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fragile five whittled down to three The fragile five have been whittled down to three as economic reforms have helped to reduce the vulnerability of the Indian rupee and Indonesian rupiah to the recent bout of emerging market currency... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Feb.) Brazilian inflation surged to its highest annual rate in a decade last month and the relentless increase, coupled with the recent sell-off in the real, bolsters the case for interest rate hikes to... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jan.) The 2.0% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production in January looks encouraging, but a rebound was always expected after the sharp 3.2% m/m drop last month. And the bigger picture is that industrial... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian real hits weakest level in a decade The Brazilian real has tumbled to its weakest level against the dollar since 2005 in recent days. We suspect that this has more to do with deteriorating economic fundamentals and suggestions from... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 Consumer Prices (Feb.) A further sharp rise in Brazilian inflation in the first half of February has tipped the balance towards another 50bp increase in the Selic interest rate at next month’s central bank meeting, rather... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Supply prospects boost cotton but weigh on arabica Agricultural commodities have faced a number of opposing pressures over the last month, including the further strengthening of the US dollar and the partial recovery in the price of crude oil. But... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Counting the cost of the Petrobras scandal It’s difficult to be precise, but we think the direct impact of the corruption scandal at Petrobras, including the effects of reduced investment by the company and others that have been implicated... 19th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Private debt in EMs: big risk or damp squib? Concerns about the rapid growth of private sector debt in EMs have resurfaced in recent days. Our view remains unchanged: fears that a debt crisis will engulf the entire emerging world are overdone... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil: at a turning point or heading deeper into the mire? A programme of government austerity will result in modest improvements to Brazil’s budget and current account deficits over the next year but at the expense of extremely weak growth and, in the near... 11th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jan.) The sharp rise in Brazilian inflation to 7.1% last month was driven by a combination of higher food prices, caused by the continuing droughts, and increases in regulated prices as part of the... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Dec.) The huge 2.8% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial production in December was caused by a collapse in capital goods production, which tends to be extremely volatile. Even so, the underlying picture... 3rd February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) Brazil’s manufacturing PMI rose to a 12-month high in January but we wouldn’t read too much into this – the relationship between the headline PMI and the hard monthly data on industrial production is... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil’s inflation outlook diverges from the pack Data released over the past month have highlighted the contrasting outlook for inflation in Brazil compared with that of the rest of the region. After a brief period within the central bank’s target... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
