Latin America Economics Update A weak first half for growth After a torrid 2013, financial markets across Latin America have enjoyed a decent run over the first half of 2014, with most equity markets up by around 5% and bond yields edging down too. However... 11th June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update BCB’s inflation headache goes from bad to worse The larger-than-expected rise in Brazil inflation in May leaves it on course to breach the upper bound of its target range over the coming months. This would be a major blow to the central bank... 6th June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil Election Watch: No evidence of a pre-election giveaway… yet The latest data do not contain much evidence of a pre-election giveaway in Brazil but President Rousseff’s slide in the opinion polls since the start of the year, coupled with a stagnant economy and a... 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Manufacturing PMI points to further weakness in Brazil Today’s manufacturing PMI data for May add to the evidence that the Brazilian economy continued to struggle in the second quarter. Meanwhile, although the US ISM manufacturing index unexpectedly fell... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack GDP growth slowed in Q1, likely to remain sluggish First quarter GDP data released over the past month suggest that the region’s economy slowed further at the start of this year, with growth dipping to just 2.0% y/y in Q1, down from 2.2% y/y in Q4... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian growth slows as consumer spending falters The slowdown in Brazilian GDP growth, from 2.2% y/y in Q4 to 1.9% y/y in Q1, is further evidence that Latin America’s largest economy is still struggling for momentum and could increase pressure on... 30th May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil leaves rates unchanged but further hikes possible in 2015 Brazil’s central bank (BCB) called a halt to its tightening cycle last night and now seems unlikely to make any changes in interest rates until after October’s presidential elections. However, it’s... 29th May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Bumpy road ahead for Lat Am markets Currencies, equities and bonds have all fared well so far this month after a turbulent past year. While we expect bouts of financial market volatility as US monetary policy becomes less accommodative... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rising inflation to prevent interest rate cuts despite slow growth Rising inflation looks set to force policymakers in most parts of Latin America to keep monetary policy relatively tight despite evidence that the region is entering a new phase of weaker economic... 9th May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil Election Watch – rise in inflation eats into Dilma’s lead The latest opinion polls suggest that President Rousseff remains the clear favourite to win a second term in office in October’s elections. But there is evidence that rising inflation is eating into... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update The economic impact of World Cup 2014 The 2014 Football World Cup, which gets underway next month in Brazil, is unlikely to provide much of a boost to the country’s flagging economy in the short term – and it certainly won’t do anything... 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Slow start to Q2 for Brazilian manufacturers April’s manufacturing PMI suggests that Brazilian manufacturers made a disappointing start to the second quarter. By contrast, the outlook for Mexican manufacturers continues to improve as the US... 2nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Big fall in Brazilian real is behind us but sustained rally unlikely Having been one of worst performing EM currencies in 2013, the Brazilian real has been one of the best performers so far in 2014, prompting speculation that it will strengthen further from here. We’re... 29th April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Inflation concerns resurface in Brazil Inflation has started to accelerate once again in Brazil, casting doubt over signals from the central bank that the hike in interest rates earlier this month could be the last in the current... 25th April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Recovery gains momentum The past month has seen Latin American financial markets perform fairly well, building on the momentum of March’s rebound. But despite the recent gains, we expect some renewed downside this year amid... 23rd April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update External vulnerabilities mean weak growth, not crisis We have been warning for a very long time that the recent period of strong growth in Latin America has been built on shaky foundations. With external vulnerabilities mounting, several countries in the... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
