Latin America Economics Update Brazil Election Watch – the state of the race Former President Lula holds a commanding lead in the polls ahead of Brazil’s presidential election on 2nd October. It seems unlikely that he would govern as radically as his party’s manifesto suggests... 6th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s consumer boom, Chile’s referendum The surge in consumer spending in Brazil shown in the Q2 GDP figures released this week was partly driven by temporary government support measures. But improvements in the labour market, coupled with... 2nd September 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jul.) The 0.6% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production in July suggests that, while headwinds facing the economy are growing, it started the third quarter in decent shape. Taken together with the robust... 2nd September 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q2 2022) The stronger-than-expected 1.2% q/q rise in Brazilian GDP in Q2 has prompted us to revise up our 2022 GDP growth forecast to an above-consensus 2.5% (previously 2.0%). And the likelihood of a final... 1st September 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (August 2022) The further fall in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 9.6% y/y in the first two weeks of August was mainly due to tax cuts on energy and masks the fact that underlying price pressures remain strong... 24th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Lula’s plan for state banks, Q2 GDP Suggestions this week by Brazil's presidential front runner Lula that state banks will play a bigger role would only aggravate some of the underlying problems in the country’s economy. Elsewhere, the... 19th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM inflation nearing its peak Aggregate EM inflation came in at its highest rate since 2008 last month, but there are signs that it is starting to stabilise and it should fall back in the coming months. For central banks in... 17th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s tax reform, inflation problems persist The new tax bill unveiled by Colombia’s government, which aims to raise tax revenues to fund the government’s social programmes and “consolidate the fiscal adjustment” doesn’t change our view that the... 12th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Challenges ahead for Brazil’s stock market Brazil’s stock market has fared better than most this year, but we forecast it to fall ~15% over the rest of 2022. And while we expect it to rebound over the following couple of years, we think... 12th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Jul. 2022) The sharp fall in Brazilian inflation to 10.1% y/y in July from 11.9% y/y in June was mainly a result of tax cuts on energy; inflation in most other price categories remains extremely strong. Even so... 9th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Copom’s tightening cycle drawing to a close The statement to yesterday’s Brazilian central bank meeting, at which the Selic rate was hiked by 50bp to 13.75%, made clear that Copom is more confident that inflation will fall back and also more... 4th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jun.) The 0.4% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial production in June, taken together with softer surveys last month, provides further evidence that the economy is losing momentum. GDP growth in the second... 2nd August 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s new superministry, Chile minutes The appointment of Sergio Massa as head of Argentina’s newly-created economic “superministry” provides some hope that the government will stick to its latest IMF deal but, even so, meeting the Fund’s... 29th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (July 2022) The drop in inflation in Brazil to 11.4% y/y in the first half of July provides the first clear sign that inflation has passed its peak and is now on a downwards path. But even so, with the headline... 26th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s election giveaways, panic stations in Chile The rapid rise in inflation and sharp falls in the peso have clearly spooked Chile’s central bank and we now expect the policy rate to reach 11.0%, from 9.75% now, which puts us on the hawkish side of... 15th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina, Banxico minutes, Brazil data dump While Argentina’s new finance minister has made some encouraging noises about sticking to the current IMF deal, there’s still no acknowledgement that the real exchange rate needs to weaken to restore... 8th July 2022 · 6 mins read