Latin America Economics Weekly Inflation alarm bells, Amlo seeks price freeze The rise in inflation to multi-decade highs across much of the region in April is clearly worrying policymakers and, this week, Mexico’s government became the latest to announce measures to cushion... 6th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Copom dialling down the tightening cycle The communications following the Brazilian central bank meeting yesterday, at which the Selic rate was hiked by 100bp (to 12.75%), confirm that the tightening cycle is nearing an end. But even so... 5th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Mar.) The 0.3% m/m increase in Brazilian industrial production in March suggests that the sector made a stronger contribution to GDP growth in Q1 than in Q4, and there are signs of further improvement in... 3rd May 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Food inflation a growing concern Inflation continues to march higher in Latin America, most recently driven by surging food prices owing to poor domestic weather conditions and rising global agricultural prices. This has led to... 27th April 2022 · 11 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Apr. 2022) The jump in Brazilian inflation to 12.0% y/y in the middle of April, coming alongside the recent fall in the real, means Copom will almost certainly raise the Selic rate by another 100bp (to 12.75%)... 27th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s election race heats up Brazil’s presidential election race has started to take centre stage as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro has narrowed the gap in the polls with front-runner Lula. Investors’ concerns about a shift to looser... 22nd April 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook High commodity prices won’t lift all boats The surge in commodity prices will drive stronger regional growth than the consensus expects this year, but not all economies in Latin America will benefit. While Brazil and Colombia will see a terms... 21st April 2022 · 26 mins read
Latin America Economics Update We expect the Brazilian real to reverse some of its gains The sharp rally in the Brazilian real against the US dollar since the start of the year has shown tentative signs of ending, and we think that it will weaken a bit through the end of 2022. In view of... 14th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: making sense of the latest surveys Depending on which activity survey you look at, Brazil’s economy either staged a rapid recovery in March or slowed. A comprehensive look at the latest figures suggests that the latter is more likely... 12th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile CPI (Mar.) The larger-than-expected rises in inflation in both Chile and Brazil last month (to 9.4% and 11.3%, respectively) support our view that their central banks will raise interest rates by more than most... 8th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Inverted yield curves a poor signal for EM downturns While yield curves have inverted in a number of emerging markets (and look likely to do so in several others in the coming months), they don’t have a good track record in predicting recessions in the... 6th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Central bank hikes and strikes Central banks in Chile and Colombia didn’t hike interest rates as aggressively as had been widely expected this week, but we think that high inflation will, ultimately, lead to more tightening in this... 1st April 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Feb.) The better-than-expected 0.7% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production in February was supported by a rebound in mining, which is likely to prove temporary. And surveys point to renewed weakness... 1st April 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Commodities boost Lat Am markets, economies less so High commodity prices caused by the war in Ukraine have driven a rally in Latin American currencies and equities this month, and are causing exports to surge. Weekly trade figures from Brazil and... 31st March 2022 · 16 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Amlo unnerves, BCB outlook, new FX forecasts Yesterday’s comment by Mexican President López Obrador that Banxico would raise its policy rate by 50bp, four hours before the official decision, is not a big deal in itself. But it adds to the sense... 25th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Mar. 2022) The stronger-than-expected Brazilian inflation reading for the first half of March, of 10.8% y/y, will be followed by a jump to 11.5-12.0% in the near term as recent fuel price hikes filter through... 25th March 2022 · 2 mins read