Europe Economics Weekly Break-up fears pile pressure on the core There are still few signs that euro-zone policymakers are close to placing a firewall around the region’s most troubled economies. This, combined with the deteriorating economic outlook, led some of... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3) & German ZEW (Nov.) The euro-zone’s modest expansion in Q3 could be the last for some time. With more timely indicators already very weak and the debt crisis set to deepen, the risks of another very sharp recession in... 15th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Sep.) & Portuguese GDP (Q3) September’s plunge in euro-zone industrial production provided the strongest sign yet that the sector is beginning to act as a major drag on the economy. Given this, the problems of the region’s most... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Capital values to fall back in 2012 and 2013 We expect the euro-zone to fall back into recession in 2012 and 2013. We have therefore cut our commercial property forecasts to reflect the weaker economic backdrop. Over the next two years, we... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Deepening crisis to prompt widespread recession The euro-zone debt crisis is having a severely damaging impact on the European macro-economy. Not only are the troubled peripheral economies set to remain deep in recession, but growth prospects have... 3rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Greek and Portuguese GDP (Final Q2) & German Trade (Jul.) The Greek and Portuguese GDP figures for Q2 add to evidence that the recessions there will be more drawn out than either Government expects, suggesting that both economies will struggle to meet their... 9th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Market relief for Portugal likely to be short-lived Market pressure on Portugal has eased over the past weeks. But we remain sceptical that the ECB’s bond purchases and the agreement reached by euro-zone policymakers last month can be a lasting... 17th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Europe’s fiscal crisis will dent the occupier market recovery The weakening economic outlook for the euro-zone economy is likely to act as a brake on the recovery in commercial property markets over the next year or two. Rental value growth will moderate in most... 5th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Crisis deepens as slowdown spreads to the core The latest rescue package for Greece has reduced the threat of a near-term catastrophe in the eurozone.But it does not address the fundamental problems facing Greece itself and is unlikely to bring an... 27th July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly A reality check for Portugal Last week’s move by credit rating agency Moody’s to cut Portugal’s rating to below investment grade was a stark reminder that default concerns are not confined to Greece. While the move was fiercely... 12th July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Hidden costs could hinder Portugal’s fiscal efforts The Portuguese government’s latest efforts to implement extra fiscal measures to ensure it meets its budget deficit target are encouraging. But even if the Government manages to push through the huge... 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Ireland and Portugal roll over their debt too? The Irish and Portuguese public finances are not in as precarious a position as those of Greece, but we think that there is a strong chance that both economies will eventually have to follow in Greece... 22nd June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can Portugal push away debt restructuring fears? Portugal’s bail-out has finally been given the green light. While a cash crisis has been avoided, there are reasons to think that Portugal may struggle to push away fears that it will eventually need... 17th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will the Portuguese bail-out work? It is not surprising that the positive market reaction to the initial details of Portugal’s package last week was short-lived. On the face of it, the bail-out may turn out to be more successful than... 9th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal succumbs. Now what? Now that Portugal has succumbed to the inevitable, the key question is whether the latest euro-zone bail-out finally draws a line under the peripheral economies’ problems or marks the start of a new... 7th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Could Portugal yet escape a bail-out? Despite the surge in Portuguese government bond yields, politicians continue to insist that they will not require a bail-out. But these words can quickly be taken over by events. A quick look at... 31st March 2011 · 1 min read