Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Mar.) Italy and Spain missed their 2012 deficit targets by a small margin and timelier data point to further likely slippage in the initial stages of this year. 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update No sign of respite for the Portuguese economy The detailed Portuguese GDP release for Q4 confirmed that the economy is in a worryingly deep and broad-based recession. The lack of evidence that the downturn is easing, coupled with voters’ growing... 11th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Ireland and Portugal need OMTs? Ireland and Portugal’s relative success in achieving fiscal targets and regaining access to financial markets has raised hopes about the sustainability of their public finances, particularly after... 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Euro-zone recession to deepen in 2013 While the lull in the euro-zone debt crisis has continued in recent months, the news on the region’s economy has remained distinctly downbeat. Despite some improvement towards the end of last year... 9th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How would exiting countries fare outside the euro-zone? Contrary to some suggestions, there are good reasons to think that, beyond the initial economic andfinancial disruption caused by an exit from the euro-zone, most of the current peripheral... 3rd December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will core market property yields be immune to the downturn? Outside the peripheral markets, the economic downturn in the euro-zone has yet to have a material impact on commercial property values. Yet if the recession deepens as we anticipate, the next six... 27th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Ind. Prod. (Sep.) & Greek & Portuguese GDP (Q3) September’s plunge in euro-zone industrial production and the weak Greek and Portuguese Q3 GDP data provided additional firm evidence that the region’s economic problems continue to mount. 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook A lull in the storm Expectations of stronger policy support from the European Central Bank have prompted a period of relative calm in the euro-zone. But previous lulls have not lasted for very long. There are still few... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Budget doesn’t solve Portugal’s problems On the face of it, Portugal’s Budget for 2013 will enable it to meet the deficit targets set by the Troika and receive the rest of its bail-out funds. But public resistance to austerity and/or a sharp... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Why is Portugal the ‘Odd Man Out’? Government bond yields in Portugal have trended lower throughout this year. This contrasts with countries such as Spain and Italy, which have seen increases in recent months. We think this is because... 6th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Most European office markets to suffer drop in take-up Our recent finding that the investment component of the German national accounts data is related to office take-up volumes seems also to apply in most other European office markets. Accordingly, our... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jun.) The latest fiscal data provide further support to the view that recessions in the southern euro-zone economies are causing the governments there to fall behind their fiscal targets. 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Bail-out talks are the next key hurdle for Greece The formation of a coalition Government headed by New Democracy has reduced the chances of Greece exiting the euro-zone imminently. But the political situation remains precarious and the Government’s... 25th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Banking union is only part of the answer Talk of an EU banking union provides some hope that policymakers are starting to address one of the potential triggers for a euro-zone break-up. But the prospect of a full-blown banking union seems as... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (May) May’s EC business and consumer survey underlined the enormity of the task facing euro-zone policymakers if they are going to convert the growing “consensus” on the need for stronger growth across the... 30th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus The consequences of a euro-zone break-up Markets have come around to our long-held view that some form of euro-zone break-up is likely, but opinion remains divided on the likely economic and financial fall-out. While even a limited and well... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read