Europe Economics Update Fall of Portuguese Government shows austerity is failing Today’s vote of no confidence in the Portuguese Government seems set to usher in a renewed push against austerity and a further rise in bond yields. The one hope is that mounting public resistance to... 10th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal’s austerity backlash seems set to continue Political wrangling in Portugal since its election has again highlighted the difficulty of imposing endless austerity on a weak economy. The fragile new Government will struggle to meet the European... 26th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Election result doesn’t alter Portugal’s challenging outlook While the re-election of Portugal’s centre-right coalition appeared to be an endorsement of the austerity stance it has taken, its failure to secure a parliamentary majority means that it may struggle... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal’s next Government will have its work cut out This weekend’s general election in Portugal looks set to be a close contest with a minority government currently appearing the most likely outcome. But whichever party ends up on top, it faces an... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Portuguese election concerns unlikely to dampen retail prospects Political factors pose less risk to the economic outlook in Portugal than in Spain. Nevertheless, the underlying economic outlook for Portugal is weaker, which will weigh on occupier demand in Lisbon... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal’s fiscal consolidation hampered by low inflation Inflation dynamics continue to hamper Portugal’s attempts to deal with its huge debt problems. The country may need to implement more fiscal austerity as it struggles to pay down its debt. 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Export success masks Portugal’s external weakness Portugal’s exports have been amongst the euro-zone’s fastest growing over the last few years. But the country’s external position remains very fragile, leaving it vulnerable to renewed market... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Italy’s recovery: lessons from Iberia Spain’s and Portugal’s recoveries offer some hope for Italy, the periphery’s laggard. But Italy’s exports are still too uncompetitive and its firms too unprofitable to mimic the export and investment... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Further yield hardening means peripheral markets will be vulnerable Greece’s future in the euro-zone is still far from secure, and upcoming general elections in Portugal, Spain and Ireland could lead to significant political changes. Nevertheless, given that property... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Portugal the euro-zone’s next weakest link? Although the ECB’s OMT programme may allow Portugal to weather a Grexit, the country still faces serious challenges that might jeopardise the country’s long-term position within the currency union. 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Recovery prospects clouded by Greece Recent indicators have brought signs of a renewed recovery in the euro-zone economy, reflecting the beneficial effects of lower oil prices and the decline in the euro exchange rate. But the picture... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal’s good news should be treated with caution A continued economic recovery and the Government’s early repayment of IMF loans have allowed Portugal to distance itself further from beleaguered Greece. But with debt still worryingly high and the... 23rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Feb.) After consolidating their fiscal positions in 2014, the peripheral economies had a mixed start to 2015. Ireland and Italy both fared comparatively well but Portugal and Greece struggled. 3rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jan.) The latest fiscal data suggest that the peripheral economies continued to strengthen their budget positions at the end of last year. But many look set to have missed their 2014 targets and Greece’s... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are markets too sanguine about contagion from Greece? Despite concerns over Greece’s future within the euro-zone, the yields on government bonds in the rest of peripheral and southern Europe have generally remained low and close to those of Germany. This... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Crisis 2.0? The onset of deflation in the euro-zone and the recent developments in Greece have served as powerful reminders of the lasting effects of the region’s debt crisis. The ECB will seek to tackle... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read