Event Japan Drop-In: The BOJ March meeting and the end of negative rates 19th March 2024, 8:00AM GMT Economists from our Japan and Markets teams held an online briefing shortly after the March decision to brief clients on the meeting outcome, talk through any market implications and take questions...
Japan Rapid Response Japan GDP (Q4 Second Estimate) While the small rise in Q4 GDP should be followed by a renewed contraction this quarter, we doubt this will prevent the BoJ from ending negative interest rates by the of next month. 10th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Shunto bonanza opens door to March rate hike Developments over the past week have increased the chances that the Bank of Japan will end negative rates in March rather than our current forecast of April. Meanwhile, with childbirths hitting a... 8th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update There is still room down for bond yields in some DMs Given our view about monetary policy, we expect government bond yields in some developed markets such as the UK to fall markedly this year. In some other places, like the euro-zone, we doubt central... 7th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Negative rates will end but tightening cycle unlikely The economy isn’t in recession but GDP growth will slow towards trend this year. With a virtuous cycle between wages and prices now in full swing, we expect the Bank of Japan to end negative rates at... 6th March 2024 · 17 mins read
Japan Economics Update Better corporate governance still not paying off The decline in listed firms’ profit margins over the last couple of years despite the tailwind from a weaker yen suggests that improved corporate governance isn’t changing corporate behaviour. While... 4th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Are more widows in the making? Today’s rise in the 2-year Japanese government bond yield to its new highest level since 2011 raises the question of whether this is the start of a far bigger sell-off in the bond market, or just... 1st March 2024 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ will not be swayed by weak industrial output We doubt that the slump in industrial output in January will prevent the Bank of Japan from ending negative rates over the coming months, but the recent string of disappointing data reinforces our... 1st March 2024 · 6 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Jan. 24) 28th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Trump tariffs a net negative for Japan in the long run We estimate that in the near-term, the drag on Japan’s exports resulting from of a universal 10% US import tariff could be nearly offset by Japan gaining market share at the expense of China in... 26th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Is the plunge in imports the canary in the coalmine? Given that GDP has already contracted for two consecutive quarters, the plunge in imports in January and the fall in the manufacturing PMI to the lowest level since 2020 in February hardly instill... 23rd February 2024 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ has succeeded in creating high-pressure economy The Bank of Japan has succeeded in creating tight labour market conditions through ultra-loose monetary policy and is now reaping the benefits in the form of stronger wage growth. The upshot is that... 22nd February 2024 · 3 mins read