Japan Economics Weekly Nascent virtuous cycle raises risk of policy tightening Inflation continues to run well ahead of wage growth and we're sticking to our forecast that the resulting fall in real incomes will force consumers to tighten their belts over the coming months. With... 28th July 2023 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Update Core inflation still far lower than elsewhere Comparing the proper inflation gauges reveals that core inflation in Japan remains far lower than elsewhere. And with most of the recent pick-up in core inflation reflecting soaring imports costs, the... 26th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (Jun./Q2 2023) 26th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Japan is not on the cusp of a lasting turnaround Japan bulls have proposed a range of explanations to justify the outperformance of the TOPIX relative to other equity indices over recent months. While there are some signs that firms are enjoying... 24th July 2023 · 18 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Tokyo Consumer Prices (Jul. 2023) Headline inflation was unchanged in Tokyo this month, but a jump in services inflation helped power a renewed increase in underlying inflation. That in turn, reflected large increases in mobile phone... 24th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily JPY & MXN: trading places We expect the fortunes of the Japanese yen and Mexican peso – which have both been outliers in different ways lately – to soon reverse, as souring risk appetite unwinds some “carry trade” and their... 21st July 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Flash PMIs (Jul. 2023) July’s flash PMI readings suggest manufacturers continue to struggle while the services sector remains resilient. And while manufacturing output prices inched up, the sizeable fall since the high last... 21st July 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Budget deficit will be larger than we had thought While the ratio of tax revenue to GDP last year was the highest it has been since the 1980s, growth in tax revenue has been weaker in recent months than we had anticipated despite strong growth in the... 21st July 2023 · 4 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Yield Curve Control won’t be tweaked At the upcoming meeting, the Bank of Japan will revise up its inflation forecasts amid early signs of stronger wage pressures. While that could open the door for a further widening of the tolerance... 21st July 2023 · 9 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: Is China in a balance sheet recession? 1690444800 Widespread angst around China’s growth outlook is fuelling a debate about whether the economy is in the kind of “balance sheet recession” that typified Japan’s experience in the 1990s.
Capital Daily Falling inflation may add further fuel to bond rally More evidence that inflation is falling back in most economies has pushed government bond yields down across developed markets (DMs) over the past couple of weeks. We think that disappointing growth... 19th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (Jun. 2023) Electricity tariff hikes that went into effect last month led to a rise in headline inflation. However, underlying inflation fell as was the case in Tokyo, for the first time in more than a year. Over... 17th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan External Trade (Jun. 2023) The trade deficit narrowed in June as export values rose faster than import values, largely reflecting the faster fall in import prices. Export climate readings suggest export volume growth will fall... 17th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly May wage data hints at virtuous wage-price cycle Regular pay growth was the strongest in May in almost three decades and suggests that we may have underestimated the influence the stellar result from this year’s annual spring wage negotiations will... 14th July 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Investors are getting the yen right for the wrong reasons Renewed murmurs of additional tweaks to the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy are giving further impetus to the yen’s recent rally. Though we forecast the yen to strengthen... 13th July 2023 · 4 mins read