Japan Economic Outlook Bank of Japan will remain the odd one out We no longer expect Japan’s economy to enter a recession. However, with real household incomes set to fall until the end of this year, domestic demand growth will remain sluggish. Accordingly, we... 4th September 2023 · 18 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Economy flatlining in Q3, but recession unlikely Note: We’ll be discussing the China growth/stimulus question, the BOJ’s policy outlook, Indian food price inflation and more in our monthly Asia Drop-In on Thursday, 31 st August. Register here to... 31st August 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jul. 23) 31st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Case for policy rate hikes still not strong enough The inflation data released this week show that underlying inflation remains stubbornly high. However, with wages still not rising fast enough for the Bank of Japan's liking and the momentum of... 25th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs raise recession risks again August’s flash PMIs support our view that both the euro-zone and UK will slip into recession in Q3 and imply that the US is now barely growing. And with output prices still easing gradually, the... 23rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Surge in 10-year JGB yield no surprise given global trend Although the 10-year JGB yield has gradually been creeping up towards the new 1% ceiling tolerated by the BoJ, this is no surprise given a broad-based rise in 10-year sovereign yields elsewhere... 22nd August 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update Import cost lift to consumer prices has run its course We estimate that firms have now passed on all of the increase in import costs to consumer prices which suggests that inflation will slow sharply over the coming months. 22nd August 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan won’t rush to tighten policy With the economy seemingly running hot and underlying inflation still accelerating, the case for tighter monetary policy looks increasingly compelling. However, we still expect the Bank of Japan to... 18th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We no longer expect the economy to enter a recession across the second half of the year. But with... 16th August 2023 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Fall in energy imports has further to run Most of the plunge in import volumes last quarter reflects lower energy imports. With the Ukraine war rekindling concerns about energy security and energy prices remaining stubbornly high, import... 15th August 2023 · 3 mins read