Commodities Update

A primer on the EU’s deforestation regulation

The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) will rejig the way commodity imports enter the EU when it comes into force later this year and could lead to premiums for compliant commodities over non...

17th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Update

Attention turns towards the return of La Niña

A return of La Niña could provide some respite for those commodity producers who have been hit hardest by El Niño. But it could also pose problems for others – not least in South America – and so...

6th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Overview Chart Pack (June 2024)

Our Commodities Overview Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. OPEC+’s decision to roll over its production cuts into Q3 will keep supply...

6th June 2024 · 1 min read

Commodities Weekly

Reading the OPEC+ tea leaves: rollover is on the cards

The decision by OPEC+ to move its crunch meeting from in-person on Saturday in Vienna to online on Sunday, historically a sign of an uneventful meeting, suggests that members will rollover production...

31st May 2024 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi GDP growth will hinge on OPEC+ decision

After exiting recession in Q1, Saudi Arabia’s economy should continue to expand over the rest of this year on the back of strong private non-oil growth and higher oil output. But next month’s OPEC...

22nd May 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Overview Chart Pack (May 2024)

We think that oil prices have further to fall, as we expect OPEC+ to gradually increase output later this year. Prices have recently fallen as worries that the conflict in the Middle East could affect...

8th May 2024 · 1 min read

Event

Commodities Drop-In: Geopolitical risk and the commodities price outlook

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Geopolitical risk may be ever-present in global commodity markets, but it’s arguably been an even bigger driver over the past year or so.

Commodities Focus

Fed rate cuts won’t send commodity prices soaring

The latest US CPI data may have dashed hopes of interest rate cuts as early as June, but looser monetary policy is still firmly on the cards late this year and over the course of next year. Lower...

16th April 2024 · 12 mins read

Commodities Update

A firm start to the year for China’s commodity imports

China’s energy and industrial metal imports were generally strong in the first quarter. We expect them to hold up well in the coming months as fiscal stimulus continues to support construction...

12th April 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Outlook

Energy prices to cool, but metals to hold firm for now

We expect most commodity prices to fall over the next couple of years as greater supply enters the market. Industrial metals are the exception, China’s policymakers have stepped up stimulus in recent...

4th April 2024 · 33 mins read

Commodities Weekly

The copper supply squeeze begins to bite

It was generally a strong week for commodity prices despite the US dollar nudging higher. Oil prices rose by ~3% after the IEA revised its forecasts towards a tighter oil market and following the...

15th March 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Overview Chart Pack (Mar. 2024)

We expect oil prices to edge lower in the second half of 2024 as OPEC+ starts to unwind its production cuts. However, the Israel-Hamas war, and associated risks to supply, will act as a floor under...

12th March 2024 · 1 min read

Commodities Update

China NPC is pro-growth, but not enough to lift prices

China’s government is planning further fiscal loosening and hinting at rate cuts this year, with the aim of boosting economic activity. We think the policy backdrop is sufficient to support...

6th March 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Cocoa prices could be close to a melting point

The price of cocoa was the star performer this week in commodity markets, rising by 16% on the week. The price has risen by 40% since the start of this year, on the back of consistently poor harvests...

9th February 2024 · 5 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Overview Chart Pack (Feb. 2024)

Oil prices are likely to remain buffeted by supply fears as long as the conflict in the Middle East continues. However, we think there will be support on the demand side later in the year as monetary...

6th February 2024 · 1 min read