Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia-India energy relations, Turkey CPI, CEE rates We are sceptical that India will fully curtail its oil imports from Russia as part of the US-India trade deal announced this week, but even a partial scaling back of purchases could add to strains in... 6th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Jan. 2026) Our proprietary EM financial risk indicators show that vulnerabilities are becoming increasingly isolated, with the number of countries at “high risk” of a crisis now at multi-year lows. Sovereign... 29th January 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jan. 2026) The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) suggest that regional GDP growth held steady at around 2.5% y/y at the start of 2026, but divergence in... 29th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jan. 2026) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Most economies in Central and Eastern Europe will experience stronger GDP growth in 2026... 26th January 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The decision by the National Bank of Romania to leave its policy rate on hold again today, at 6.50%, was widely expected by analysts, and we think that high inflation will continue to prevent interest... 19th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Dec. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Most economies in Central and Eastern Europe will experience stronger GDP growth in 2026... 17th December 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Diverging outlook as war in Ukraine drags on Most economies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will experience stronger GDP growth in 2026 as external demand picks up and fiscal policy is kept loose (or loosened), while Russia’s economy will... 15th December 2025 · 25 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Default risks easing, but simmering fiscal problems in some EMs The incidence of sovereign debt distress has declined sharply across the EM world and is now back to pre-pandemic levels. But our EM Financial Risk Indicators suggest that several countries are still... 25th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Q3 GDP data out of Emerging Europe confirmed a growing divergence in the region, with... 19th November 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Orban enters election mode Pre-election fiscal loosening is in full swing in Hungary and, with four months still to go until voting, the risk is that more giveaways are announced, which pushes risk premia on public debt even... 14th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) The decision by the National Bank of Romania (NBR) to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 6.50%, came as no surprise, and a return to monetary easing is still some way off. Our current forecast is... 12th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly NBP interest rate cuts, diverging growth outlook The communications following the decision by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) this week to cut its policy rate by 25bp, to 4.25%, suggest that the risk to our forecast for the policy rate to bottom... 7th November 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania’s fiscal consolidation faces big challenges Romania has seen one of the largest bond market rallies across EMs in the past six months, but we think a further sustained fall in yields is unlikely. A lot more fiscal tightening is needed to... 5th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (Oct.) The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) suggest that growth in the region as a whole held up relatively well at the start of Q4. But there has been... 30th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data suggest that GDP growth in Central and Eastern Europe generally remained... 23rd October 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The National Bank of Romania left its policy rate on hold today, at 6.50%, and despite signs that the economy is struggling in response to recent fiscal tightening, we think interest rates will be... 8th October 2025 · 2 mins read
