Europe Commercial Property Update Strength of Romanian industrial take-up to wane Although demand for Romanian industrial space held up in H1, we expect it to weaken over the rest of the year as consumer demand falters and the economy recovers only slowly. Combined with incentives... 5th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: current account risks mount Strong domestic demand means that Romania’s current account deficit, which is already among the largest of any major EM, is likely to widen further. This makes the leu increasingly vulnerable to a... 15th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s S-400 deal, Russia’s sanction risk Turkish assets look set to come under more pressure in the coming weeks as the government pushes ahead with its plans to purchase a Russian missile defence system. Meanwhile, comments from Russia’s... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update More monetary tightening lies in store in Romania The National Bank of Romania’s decision to maintain strict control over money market liquidity marks a step in the right direction to addressing the large build-up of economic imbalances. But we think... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Office sector outperforms; retail in the doldrums Occupier markets are seeing diverging fortunes, with occupier demand for office and industrial space extremely strong, but retailers battling a number of headwinds. This is likely to set the tone for... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian leu has much further to fall The Romanian government’s surprise introduction of a bank tax has put the leu under pressure recently and the country’s wide current account deficit suggests that further currency falls lie in store... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fiscal support will boost Polish & Czech economies Strong budget positions in Poland and the Czech Republic will allow governments to ramp up spending next year. That’s one key reason why we expect that GDP growth in 2019 in these countries will be... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are EMs’ current accounts still a point of concern? The large current account deficits in Turkey and Argentina that precipitated currency crises this year are now narrowing and external positions are in decent shape in most major EMs. But there are a... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CBRT paves way for cuts, Polish industry stays soft in Q4 The latest comments from Turkey’s central bank suggest that policymakers are considering unwinding some of the recent rate hikes, reinforcing our view that the MPC isn’t serious about tackling the... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Currency rallies ease pressure on central banks The recent rallies in the Russian ruble and the Turkish lira have added weight to our view that central banks in both countries will refrain from tightening policy further when they meet next week... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Strength of Romanian leu built on shaky foundations The Romanian central bank’s FX intervention this year has kept the leu artificially strong, causing economic imbalances to build. Unless policymakers change course soon and loosen their grip on the... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC in dovish mood … for now Poland’s MPC maintained a dovish stance today. On the face of it, low inflation suggests that this position is justified, but we think that policymakers are too sanguine on the outlook for consumer... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q2) GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe showed that regional growth slowed for a third consecutive quarter in Q2. We expect that this slowdown will continue over the rest of 2018 and 2019. 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE slowdown continues GDP data out next week will probably show that GDP growth in Central and Eastern Europe slowed for a third straight quarter in Q2. We think that the slowdown will continue over the rest of 2018 and... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian central bank tightening policy via the backdoor Although the National Bank of Romania left its key policy rate unchanged today, the Bank is using open market operations to tighten monetary conditions. We think that policymakers will return to... 4th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jun.) At a regional level, Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe were weaker in Q2 than in Q1, supporting our view that regional GDP growth peaked in Q3 2017. 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
