Emerging Europe Economics Update Central & South Eastern Europe: Q3 slowdown was broad-based The recently-released breakdowns of Q3 GDP data for Central and South Eastern Europe showed that most major expenditure components weakened, although there was still some encouraging news at a country... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook CEE yields to fall faster and for longer As in the euro-zone, monetary policy is set to stay loose in the rest of Europe keeping real estate attractive. That said, the current phase of falling yields is set to end in 2019 in Western European... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Turkey’s vulnerabilities come home to roost The risks posed by Turkey’s heavy dependence on foreign capital inflows came to a head this month, with the lira falling the furthest of any EM currency in November. This has been driven in part by... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Nov.) The batch of strong Economic Sentiment Indicators across Central and Eastern Europe this month suggests that GDP growth in the region as a whole recovered in Q4. But while the aggregate picture... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier financial markets sell off, but losses limited Frontier financial markets came under pressure in the wake of Donald Trump’s US election victory, with currencies weakening against the dollar and bond yields rising. The losses have been relatively... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Stuck in the slow lane Having slowed in Q3, we expect growth in Emerging Europe to recover over the course of the next year as Russia continues to pull out of recession and investment in the Central European economies... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & South Eastern Europe GDP (Q3 2016) The weaker-than-expected preliminary Q3 GDP figures for Central and South Eastern Europe support our view that growth in the region is likely to settle at a more moderate pace of 2.5-3.0% y/y in the... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) October’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that the recovery in the Russian economy resumed at the start of Q4 after a disappointing Q3. The surveys also provided early signs that the Turkish economy is... 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Political risks take toll on lira and leu Domestic political risks have taken a toll on Emerging Europe’s two worst performing currencies – the Turkish lira and Romanian leu – over the past month. For the lira, in particular, we think... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian rate hikes coming onto the agenda Comments by the Romanian National Bank Governor at this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference suggest that the MPC is inching towards starting a tightening cycle, reinforcing our view that the... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & South Eastern Europe GDP (Q2 2016) The surprisingly strong batch of Q2 GDP figures for Central and South Eastern Europe released today suggest that growth in the region as a whole picked up to a robust 3.7% y/y from 3.0% y/y in Q1. We... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech and Romanian MPCs remain in dovish mood The Romanian MPC’s press conference was a little more dovish than we had anticipated, but robust domestic demand and rising inflation mean gradual interest rate hikes still seem more likely than not... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian MPC stresses risks from loose fiscal policy Romanian National Bank Governor Mugur Isarescu gave little away at this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference, but the tone of the accompanying statement suggested that the MPC is concerned about... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Russia to surface from recession, but recovery weak Having contracted in 2015, we expect the economy of Emerging Europe to return to growth in 2016. This will be driven in large part by an improvement in conditions in the region’s largest economy... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Turning the corner The raft of preliminary GDP data published over the past month showed that the slump in regional growth bottomed out in the third quarter of this year. We estimate that, in aggregate, GDP in Emerging... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Political uncertainty causes Romanian MPC to sounds cautious The press conference following the Romanian MPC meeting earlier today confirmed our view that the resignation of the Prime Minister yesterday would prompt the Council to adopt a more cautious line... 5th November 2015 · 1 min read
