Energy Update Three potential catalysts for lower European gas prices A mild winter in the Northern Hemisphere, a substitution of gas for other fuels in electricity generation, and/or a rise in supply via Nord Stream 2 could all send European gas prices lower in the... 24th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Emerging Europe: Industrial loses crown after 2021 Our forecast for the economic recovery to maintain its momentum in H2 bodes well for occupier and investment activity. But while we think industrial rental growth will pick up, we still expect office... 24th September 2021 · 19 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lat Am leads the EM tightening cycle Several EM central banks have raised interest rates in the past couple of months on the back of growing inflation concerns (including many in Latin America) and/or strong economic recoveries (parts of... 23rd September 2021 · 3 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack We think China’s equities will continue to struggle Even if the current concerns around Evergrande abate, we think China’s stock market will continue to underperform many of those elsewhere over the next couple of years. Drop-In: Evergrande – What are... 22nd September 2021 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update Falling oil prices unlikely to stop EMEA equity gains Despite the fall in oil prices that we expect over the coming years, we forecast the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) EMEA Index to make further gains and continue to outperform the broader MSCI EM Index. 17th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Gas prices rocket, CBRT tinkers, chip shortages mount The recent surge in European gas and coal prices adds to the price pressures facing the region and will push headline inflation rates further above central banks' targets in the coming months... 17th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s election: social redistribution in focus A victory for United Russia in the Duma elections this week will strengthen the government’s recent focus on state intervention in the economy. Social redistribution has become a key priority for the... 15th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM financial conditions still loose barring LatAm Our financial conditions indices show that conditions remain loose by historic standards in most EMs. The key exception is Latin America, where conditions have tightened sharply this year due to... 13th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly More of the same Commodity markets have been relatively quiet over the last few weeks, with many prices trading in a narrow range. There are a few exceptions, most notably the prices of natural gas and coal, which... 10th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland-EU dispute, Russia’s fiscal plans, Turkish inflation The Poland-EU dispute over the rule of law reached a breaking point this week and raises the threat of potential fines and a significant delay to receiving EU recovery funds, dimming an otherwise... 10th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR slows down tightening, cycle nearing an end Russia’s central bank (CBR) slowed down its monetary tightening cycle with a 25bp interest rate hike, to 6.75% at today’s meeting and the accompanying communications suggest that there may be just one... 10th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Update How long will coal and gas prices remain sky-high? Coal and natural gas prices have soared around the world on the back of unseasonable weather and disruptions to supply. And even if the weather normalises and supply rebounds soon, we expect prices to... 10th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The pandemic and EM scarring risks The pandemic is likely to inflict lasting damage on potential growth in economies in much of Latin America, Africa and South and Southeast Asia, adding to the structural headwinds that they already... 9th September 2021 · 17 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Aug.) Russian inflation rose to a fresh five-year high of 6.7% y/y in August and, while there are some tentative signs that price pressures have started to soften recently, we think the central bank’s... 8th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland’s inflation surge, situation stabilising in Israel The surge in Polish inflation to a fresh two-decade high in August has shown no sign of prompting a more hawkish shift at the central bank. But with inflation likely to remain stuck above target for... 3rd September 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jul.) Russia’s activity data for July show that industrial production has come off the boil, but retail sales continued to expand strongly, and the strength of consumer demand will probably keep the central... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
