Emerging Europe Data Response Czech GDP (Q4 2021) & Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The strong 0.9% q/q expansion of Czech GDP in Q4 is consistent with data showing a recovery in industry and we think this is likely to continue this year. Meanwhile, more timely manufacturing PMIs for... 1st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s drive for “lira-isation”, Russia’s market sell-off The upwards revision to the Turkish central bank's 2022 inflation forecast this week was just a matter of catching up with reality and the more interesting detail was the central bank’s emphasis on... 28th January 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Industry shifts into gear amid signs of easing shortages Industry across Emerging Europe turned a corner in Q4 as auto production rebounded strongly. This comes amid signs that supply shortages are starting to ease; our proprietary shortages dashboard... 27th January 2022 · 12 mins read
Bonds & Equities Four points on Russia’s market sell-off The sell-off in Russia’s financial markets in response to the reassessment of the likelihood of conflict with Ukraine has pushed up the risk premium on Russian assets to a similar level to that which... 27th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Mounting headwinds to take the shine off the recovery We expect regional GDP growth to come in below expectations this year as high inflation erodes households’ real incomes and policy becomes more restrictive. Despite this view on the growth outlook, we... 20th January 2022 · 29 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Jan.) OPEC continued to raise output by less than its target in December. However, the group is still steadily raising output, which is a key reason why we see the market moving into a surplus this year. 18th January 2022 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap We do not expect the recent dollar weakness to last Despite several events in the US this week which would usually point to a stronger dollar – the highest US inflation print since the early 1980s, hawkish comments from both Chair Powell and Vice Chair... 14th January 2022 · 9 mins read
Global Markets Update The implications of the Russia-Ukraine crisis The deadlocked end to talks between Russia, the US and NATO and subsequent hawkish noises from Russian officials have caused a risk premium to emerge on Russian asset prices and will keep the prospect... 14th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Omicron sweeps across the emerging world The Omicron variant of COVID-19 is causing new virus cases to surge in the emerging world. Many EMs are reporting record daily cases or that new infections are rising sharply. South Africa’s... 14th January 2022 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia-NATO talks crumble, CBRT’s reserves plunge A tense week of negotiations between Russia, the US and NATO have ended with what now seems to be a more serious ratcheting up of tensions over Ukraine. It seems like that Russia’s recent belligerent... 14th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update EM equities may continue to underperform in 2022-23 We think that emerging market (EM) equities will continue to underperform their developed market (DM) peers over the next couple of years, even if that underperformance is far less stark than it was... 13th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Dec.) Russian inflation held steady at 8.4% y/y in December, but we think it will rise a bit further this month and prompt the central bank to deliver a final 75bp rate hike, to 9.25%, at its meeting next... 12th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Defiant NBP, Turkish policymakers tighten their grip Poland's central bank continued its tightening cycle this week, but recent comments from policymakers have made us concerned that it is failing to appreciate the extent, persistence and possible... 7th January 2022 · 7 mins read
Energy Update European natural gas prices surging on supply fears We always expected European natural gas prices to remain high over the winter because of low stocks, but heightened uncertainty about supply from Russia has caused prices to skyrocket again. Assuming... 21st December 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Omicron? Central banks focusing firmly on inflation Inflation pressures have shown no signs of letting up across Emerging Europe, with headline inflation rates surging to multi-year highs in November. Producer price inflation has hit rates not seen in... 20th December 2021 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR accelerates tightening amid surging inflation Russia’s central bank (CBR) stepped up the pace of its tightening cycle today with a 100bp interest rate hike, to 8.50%, and the hawkish communications reinforce the message that it will not hesitate... 17th December 2021 · 3 mins read
