Our latest Outlook outlines our commodity price forecasts over the coming years. This Update further highlights the key themes and the factors that will shape commodity market developments in 2026. 1) Major question marks over OPEC+ policy. While a …
18th December 2025
Although there was an almighty rally in US government bonds after the dotcom boom turned to bust, we doubt that would happen again if the AI bubble burst. Indeed, our forecast is that the 10-year Treasury yield will be broadly unchanged in 2027, which is …
(Very) slow and steady Today’s decision to leave the policy rate at 4.0% came as no surprise and the Bank’s messaging repeated that any further rate cuts will be very gradual. We are forecasting the next cut to come in March but the risks are skewed …
Riksbank increasingly optimistic, but rate hikes a year away While the Riksbank left its policy rate at 1.75% and its forward guidance unchanged today, the economic data have improved significantly over the past few months and have given us greater …
CBC in no rush to cut Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) left its main policy rate on hold today (at 2.00%) and, with growth likely to remain strong and inflation set to stay low, policy settings look set to be left unchanged throughout 2026-27. The decision …
The Australian government’s mid-year budget update showed that efforts to rein in public spending remain few and far between. With the economy pushing up against capacity constraints, the case for the RBA to tighten policy is becoming increasingly …
Upside surprise in GDP won’t alter the rates outlook Although the New Zealand economy bounced back strongly in Q3, the recovery is likely to be choppy going forward. Accordingly, we believe the RBNZ will remain in wait and watch mode for a while to come. …
17th December 2025
While housing activity and prices have been resilient to uncertainty ahead of the Budget and the subdued economic backdrop, there are few signs of a post-Budget rebound in buyer sentiment. If sentiment doesn’t pick-up in early 2026, that would pose a …
Rental growth has ended the year on a strong note, but with yields stable total returns are beginning to ease from their recent level of around 8% y/y. And with yields set to see little movement over the next few years, we expect total returns of just …
Global Commercial Property Chartpack (Q4 2025) …
We don’t think the AI rally is dead yet, and expect it to last through 2026. That view underpins our forecasts for strong gains in those equity markets most exposed to it, particularly the US and some of those in Asia. Other equity markets, and ‘risky’ …
The US blockade on sanctioned oil from Venezuela crystallises a key risk that has overshadowed the oil market in recent months. That said, the upside risks for oil prices are limited, not least because even a full loss of Venezuela’s exports would still …
Our View: Most economies in Central and Eastern Europe will experience stronger GDP growth in 2026 as external demand picks up and fiscal policy is kept loose (or loosened), while Russia’s economy will stagnate amid low oil prices as well as war and …
After a very strong 2025, economic growth in India is likely to slow in 2026 in the face of punitive US tariffs. But they could get rolled back and, even if they don’t, India will remain a relative bright spot in the global economy. Inflation has probably …
German economy ends year on a weak note The fall in the German Ifo in December chimes with the drop in the Composite PMI and suggests that the long-awaited recovery in the German economy still has not materialised, with the fiscal stimulus not yet having …
Low inflation will allow the SARB to keep cutting The softer-than-expected South African inflation reading, of 3.5% y/y in November, and weak core inflation will give the Reserve Bank plenty of confidence that it can meet its new, lower 3% inflation …
BI holds, but dovish tone points to fresh easing in 2026 Bank Indonesia left its benchmark interest rate on hold at 4.75% today for a third consecutive meeting but, once again, the accompanying communications were dovish and we still think there’s scope …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. We’re hosting a 20-minute online briefing at 3pm GMT on Thursday 18 th December on the latest central bank decisions and 2026 policy outlook. (Register here .) Inflation fading …
BoT cut rates, more easing to come Thailand’s central bank (BoT) today cut interest rates by a further 25bps, to 1.25%, and we doubt this marks the end of the easing cycle. With growth struggling and price pressures very low, we expect two additional …
Although emerging market equities are, in some places, very heavily exposed to the AI boom, we think they would in aggregate hold up better than those in the US if that boom continued to unwind. Concerns about US tech have started to resurface, …
Africa Chart Pack (Dec. '25) …
16th December 2025
The tech and non-tech cyclical sectors of the S&P 500 are becoming increasingly disconnected. So, while the positive payrolls data may support some cyclical stocks, tech ones may not get much of a boost in the absence of renewed enthusiasm for AI. The US …
Table of Key Forecasts Overview – EM GDP growth will slow to ~3.5% in 2026-27, the weakest rate in the past three decades outside times of crisis. But there are wide divergences at a country level. Much of the weakness in EM growth stems from a few large …
Private payrolls appear to have found a floor The combined 121,000 rise in private payrolls over October and November was a better result than expected. That positive momentum suggests the Fed will not be overly concerned by the upside surprise in the …
End to EV rebates masks core sales strength Retail sales were unchanged in October, although this was mostly down to lower motor vehicle sales as Biden-era EV rebates were phased out. While household consumption growth will have been weaker in the fourth …
MNB to stay on hold despite inflation dip The decision by the Hungarian central bank (MNB) to leave its base rate on hold today, at 6.50%, was widely expected and, despite a near-term dip in inflation, we expect rates to stay on hold until after the …
The announcement by Argentina’s central bank that it will widen the peso’s trading bands is a step in the right direction, but it won’t be enough to bring the peso closer to its fair value. With the currency likely to remain overvalued, imbalances could …
We think the AI bubble will keep inflating, and that 2026 will be another good year for risk more broadly. Meanwhile, we expect the bond market to keep muddling through, and the dollar to rebound further as the US economy continues to outperform. As 2025 …
Non-tariff barriers in India have risen over the past decade, as highlighted by the widespread use of Quality Control Orders (QCOs). It is encouraging therefore that there appears to have been a policy reversal in the past couple of months. A more …
We’ll be discussing the outlook for Bank of England, Fed and ECB policy in a 20-minute online Drop-In at 3pm on Thursday 18 th December. (Register here ). This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. UK not out of the …
Substantial pick-up in growth remains elusive December’s flash PMI was a little weaker than the reading in November but is still consistent with the economy expanding moderately in the fourth quarter while inflationary pressures remain too high for the …
We’re hosting a 20-minute online briefing at 3pm GMT on Thursday 18 th December on the latest central bank decisions and 2026 policy outlook. (Register here .) This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Looser labour …
Rising interest rates in Japan have raised concerns about whether this will slow investment activity and exert downward pressure on capital values. Our view is that while the risk-free rate will continue to gradually rise, steady GDP growth means the …
House price downturn not over yet The housing market weakened in November, with sales activity and house prices both recording declines. Even so, the further improvement in the sales-to-new-listing ratio raises our confidence that house price inflation …
15th December 2025
Overview – The outlook for oil is dominated by an abundance of supply, which will continue to weigh on prices over our forecast horizon. Meanwhile, although structural demand factors will keep gold and silver prices at historically-elevated levels over …
Regional GDP growth will slow next year, which combined with softer inflation, should give central banks room to continue to ease monetary policy. But the scale of easing will vary across countries. While we think interest rates will come down a long way …
Overview – The macroeconomic backdrop has turned increasingly favourable and we expect Sub-Saharan Africa to enter its strongest period of growth in the coming years since the early 2010s. Our forecasts for most countries – notably South Africa – are …
Overview – The economic outlook across much of Asia has improved recently, prompting modest upward revisions to our 2026 GDP growth forecasts. Strong demand for AI-related products will continue to lift exports and offset the impact of US tariffs. The …
Sector-specific tariffs hurting their intended targets The fall in manufacturing sales in October appears to have been mostly the result of newly-implemented US tariffs weighing on certain sectors, or at least the threat thereof. We expect trade …
Muted core price pressures should quell rate hike talk The below-target gain in three of the four main core prices measures in November reinforces our view that markets have gotten ahead of themselves by pricing in higher interest rates from the Bank of …
Soft inflation to prompt quick restart to easing cycle The sharp decline in Nigeria’s headline inflation rate to 14.5% y/y last month strengthens our view that the central bank will quickly restart its easing cycle when it next meets in the new year. The …
Overview – Fiscal support and a ramp-up in AI investment will prevent a sharp slowdown in China’s economy, but we expect growth to remain weak in 2026. Deflation and overcapacity will persist and China’s towering goods trade surplus with the world will …
Chilean markets appear to have largely already priced in José Antonio Kast’s victory in the second round of the presidential election yesterday – and the prospect of stronger public finances and more pro-business policymaking. That said, his fiscal plans …
The year’s home stretch is a natural moment to take stock of the major developments of the last twelve months and get some perspective on the likely challenges in 2026. With that in mind – and for those looking for a reading break from any holiday bustle …
Overview – After enduring a higher inflation rate than most of its peers for the bulk of the past five years, we think that 2026 will be the year that inflation in the UK falls back to the 2.0% target. That will have a lot to do with the loosening in the …
Overview – Most economies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will experience stronger GDP growth in 2026 as external demand picks up and fiscal policy is kept loose (or loosened), while Russia’s economy will stagnate amid low oil prices as well as war …
Inflation eases, deflation possible by end-2026 Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate dropped to a nine-month low of 1.9% y/y in November and we expect it to ease further, and potentially into deflationary territory, over 2026-27. The outturn was down …
