UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Price Index (Aug. 2024) Despite the recent declines in mortgage rates, the small fall in the Nationwide house price index in August suggests affordability constraints on households continue to bite. But the further drop in... 30th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Cap on foreign students could stymie growth in 2025 The Australian government is working to pass legislation that would cap international student commencements at 270,000 in 2025, a significant step down from its current level of around 400,000. While... 30th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ will press ahead with another rate hike The jump in the unemployment rate in July is a lagged response to the weakness in economic activity around the turn of the year. Given that the July industrial production and retail sales data are... 30th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jul. 24) The July activity data suggest that the economic recovery continued in Q3 but shifted down at least one gear. 30th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Market (Jul. 24) & Tokyo CPI (Aug. 24) The jump in the unemployment rate in July should reverse before long as economic activity rebounds. Meanwhile, the renewed pick-up in underlying inflation in Tokyo in August is consistent with our... 30th August 2024 · 2 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth to rebound We forecast a healthier 170,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in August, alongside a small fall in the unemployment rate to 4.2%. Wage growth should remain at 3.6%. Together, that would be consistent with... 29th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Another meeting, another 25bp cut The dovish communication following the last meeting and the encouraging July CPI report leave little doubt that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates again next week. A 25bp cut, to 4.25%... 28th August 2024 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Jul. 2024) 28th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Banking on a soft landing It’s perhaps surprising that financials have outperformed the S&P 500 during the recent bout of market turbulence. (See Chart 1.) After all, Treasury yields have fallen and the outlook for the US... 27th August 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Updated fair value analysis means a lower peak for yields Our fair value analysis suggests that appraisal-based NOI yields need to rise by 50-60 bps from Q2 levels. But downgrades to our expectations for Treasury yields in the latter years of our forecast... 27th August 2024 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jun. 2024) The muted 0.2% rise in the national Case-Shiller house price index in June was no shock considering that buyer demand collapsed that month, while supply kept growing. With the spring selling season... 27th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Producer price inflation set to slow further The persistent strength in producer price inflation probably still mostly reflects the lagged influence of the surge in import costs rather than any pick-up in wage growth. If the yen keeps... 27th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Wage growth is starting to outpace inflation and with real incomes rising, the rebound in consumer... 26th August 2024 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly 25bp or 50bp? The dovish speech from Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium suggests that the Fed will be choosing between a 25bp and a 50bp cut at its meeting in September. A 50bp cut would look less... 23rd August 2024 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response New Home Sales (Jul. 2024) The surge in new home sales in July was driven by pent-up buyers taking advantage of the sharp drop in borrowing costs last month, after having been sidelined earlier this year by high mortgage rates... 23rd August 2024 · 2 mins read
