US Housing Market Rapid Response Housing Starts (Jul. 2024) The slump in both housing starts and building permits in July, to the lowest levels since the epoch of the pandemic, only partly reflects the temporary impact of Hurricane Beryl. Accordingly, even... 16th August 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Jul. 2024) After a weather disrupted Q2, July’s 0.5% m/m rise in retail sales volumes (consensus forecast 0.6% m/m, CE forecast 0.5% m/m) was largely driven by two sectors and only partially reversed June’s 0.9%... 16th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Consumption revival points to another rate hike The strong rebound in household consumption last quarter was underpinned by a pick-up in real incomes. This should allay lingering concerns among BoJ policymakers that the economy is too weak to cope... 16th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ likely to loosen faster than it has signalled When it kicked off its easing cycle this week, the RBNZ indicated that it would take a measured approach to cutting rates over the coming months. However, we think the Bank is understating the... 16th August 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) Our UK Housing Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The recent drop in mortgage rates has caused house prices to rise a bit faster than expected... 15th August 2024 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q3 2024) Minimal movement in property yields and a slight edge up in the 10-year Treasury yield meant improvement in our property valuation scores stalled in the second quarter of the year. Despite the recent... 15th August 2024 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Revising up our 2024 house price forecast Given the revival in house prices and recent falls in mortgage rates, we are raising our Q4 2024 house price growth forecast from 1.0% y/y to 2.0%. We now think that the number of housing transactions... 15th August 2024 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Industrial Production (Jul.) The fall in manufacturing output in July was entirely driven by temporary disruptions which should reverse this month. Excluding those temporary factors, this is a strong report which, together with... 15th August 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Retail Sales (Jul. 2024) There was almost nothing in the July retail sales report for the perma-bears to latch on to, with the rebound in retail sales led by a recovery in vehicle sales, but encouragingly broad-based with... 15th August 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Jun. & Q2 2024) While the economy flatlined in June, it still managed to grow by 0.6% q/q rise in GDP in Q2. That said, some of the rebound in activity in Q2 may have been due to catch-up growth following the... 15th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Jul. 2024) The slight uptick in the unemployment rate last month belies a renewed acceleration in employment growth. Accordingly, the data are unlikely to assuage the RBA’s concerns about a tight labour market. 15th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Focus Global imbalances will continue to fuel fracturing The renewed widening of global imbalances has become another faultline in the fracturing of the world economy, and will continue to provoke trade barriers in the coming decades. With overall... 14th August 2024 · 17 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The 0.15% m/m increase in all-items CPI and the 0.17% increase in core CPI in July suggest that, after the temporary relapse in the first quarter, the disinflationary trend has firmly reasserted... 14th August 2024 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q3 24) While investment has tentatively turned a corner, subdued activity and further rises in cap rates mean 2024 will still be a tough year. All-property values are down by 18% from their mid-2022 peaks... 14th August 2024 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Kishida’s resignation won’t affect economic outlook Prime Minister Kishida’s resignation is hardly a surprise. At this stage, it’s very difficult to predict who will succeed him and the ruling LDP will probably remain in power for the foreseeable... 14th August 2024 · 3 mins read
