UK Economics Weekly Peak does not mean pivot There are two key points to remember as we near the end of the hiking phase of the interest rate cycle and get close to the holding phase. First, a peak in interest rates does not mean that a pivot to... 4th August 2023 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (July) Non-farm payroll employment increased by 187,000 in July and, while that represented a trivial improvement on the downwardly revised 185,000 gain the month before, those are otherwise the two weakest... 4th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Soft landing tailwind for “risky” assets may fade We suspect the boost to “risky” assets from the resilience of the economy may have mostly run its course. 4th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (June 2023) Euro-zone retail sales fell in June and we expect them to continue to trend down over the rest of this year as high interest rates take an increasing toll on consumers. 4th August 2023 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA unlikely to lift rates any higher With the Reserve Bank of Australia having left its cash rate unchanged for two consecutive meetings, we think its tightening cycle is at an end. Indeed, the RBA appears increasingly concerned that... 4th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ in fighting retreat from yield control 10-year government bond yields have steadily risen since the BoJ effectively raised the yield ceiling from 0.5% to 1.0% last Friday and could test the new ceiling by year-end. If that happens, we... 4th August 2023 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Why we still expect 15% falls in industrial and apartment values Despite capital value falls of 7% and 9% to-date for industrial and apartments respectively, we are forecasting around 15% further value declines as cap rates rise. But the falls in appraisal-based... 3rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
Event US Drop-In: July CPI and the Fed policy outlook 10th August 2023, 3:00PM BST We think the Fed’s done with raising rates and won’t hike again at its September meeting – but much will depend on the next couple of inflation reports, including July’s.
UK Economics Update Close to the summit, but rates to stay at the peak for a year Today’s 25 basis point (bps) rise in interest rates from 5.00% to 5.25% may be followed by another hike in September to a peak of 5.50%. But rates appear close to the summit. Even so, the Bank’s new... 3rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (3rd Aug. 2023) 3rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Jul.) The final euro-zone PMIs confirmed that economic conditions deteriorated in July, with the Composite index consistent with GDP declining slightly. We continue to expect the euro-zone economy to fall... 3rd August 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia International Trade (Jun. 2023) 3rd August 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Wage growth to slow despite labour strikes Despite some recent high-profile labour strikes, it still seems likely that overall wage growth will slow sharply during the next 12 months, as labour demand cools and elevated immigration boosts... 2nd August 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response US Metro Employment (Jun.) Seasonally-adjusted total employment growth rose by 0.6% 3m/3m on average across the 30 metros we track for the third consecutive month. But there has been clear weakness in the information sector in... 2nd August 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Mortgage Applications (Jul.) June’s rebound in mortgage applications for home purchase was short-lived as total applications fell by 1.7% in July. This pushed applications back down toward 30-year lows and was probably prompted... 2nd August 2023 · 1 min read
