Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) While economic activity was generally more resilient than feared in the first half of 2023, we expect global growth to disappoint in the coming quarters. We doubt that another bout of policy stimulus... 14th August 2023 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response Commercial Property Lending (July) July saw the amount of outstanding debt secured against real estate rise (albeit marginally) after a sharp drop in June, driven by a strong rebound in residential lending. Across the commercial real... 14th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Although central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are unlikely to drop... 14th August 2023 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Prices stabilize, but activity to remain weak With affordability stretched and the economy slowing, housing market activity is expected to remain weak over the coming quarters. While we expect house prices to lose some of their recent momentum... 11th August 2023 · 15 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation and activity data at odds The sudden burst of disinflationary pressure, partly due to a moderation in non-housing core services, is another reason to doubt the narrative that the real activity is gathering momentum. 11th August 2023 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Data still consistent with soft(ish) landing Although export volumes fell for the second month running in June, the strength of imports suggests that domestic demand is holding up and the Bank of Canada will be pleased to see that import prices... 11th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What the bond market swings could mean for equities The big swings in Treasury yields recently have sent some ripples through the US stock market. This Update sets out how we think this will continue to play out, for the equity market as a whole and... 11th August 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK unlikely to follow the US closely this time While the evidence of broad-based, rapid disinflation in the US offers some hope for the UK, we suspect the UK will not quickly follow the US. Instead, we think the UK's recent problems of higher... 11th August 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Jun./Q2 2023) The 0.5% m/m rise in real GDP in June and 0.2% q/q increase in Q2 (CE, BoE, consensus 0.1% q/q) confirmed that a recession has so far been avoided. But with much of the drag from higher interest rates... 11th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Recession now looking unlikely Wage growth has been strong in recent months which will make it easier for households to cope with high inflation. What’s more, the outlook for external demand has brightened as we no longer expect... 11th August 2023 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian households pinch pennies New data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed that real household spending well and truly fell of a cliff in Q2. Moreover, with consumer sentiment in the doldrums, private consumption is... 11th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update How much is fiscal policy supporting activity? With lingering pandemic and energy support measures coming to a close and governments returning one eye to previous fiscal targets, fiscal policy will tighten a little in advanced economies over the... 10th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Why has the EZ labour market remained so strong? We are unconvinced by Cristine Lagarde’s claim that the recent strength of employment in the euro-zone is due mainly to labour hoarding and shifts in the sectoral composition of employment. Instead... 10th August 2023 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (July) The disinflationary pressures continued to build in July, with both headline and core CPI increasing by a moderate 0.2% m/m. Admittedly, the annual headline inflation rate actually ticked up to 3.2%... 10th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The mixed recession signals from US HY bonds & CMBS The stark and unusual contrast between falling credit spreads of high-yield (HY) corporate bonds and rising ones of private-label commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) in the US suggests... 10th August 2023 · 4 mins read
