UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Jul.) Given the recent rise in average mortgage rates to their highest level since 2008, we are not surprised by the further deterioration in the RICS headline survey figures. And as we do not expect market... 10th August 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Is there real evidence of an office 'flight to quality'? The data show a small, but limited, divergence in performance between overall class A and classes B and C office space. But that differential appears to have been driven by newly-built " trophy" space... 9th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Financial conditions still flagging recession risk Even though the financial strains that emerged after SVB’s collapse have dissipated, interest rate hikes have left overall financial conditions in major advanced economies close to their tightest... 9th August 2023 · 5 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ done hiking, rate cuts in Q1 2024 With inflation coming off the boil and labour market conditions starting to turn, we suspect that Reserve Bank of New Zealand will not lift interest rates any higher. To be sure, the Bank is likely to... 9th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily A brighter future for banks may require one for the economy The share prices of US banks have recovered some ground since a low point in May, as concerns about further failures in the industry have abated; Treasury yields have rebounded; and the economy has... 8th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily More yield curve “disinversion”, perhaps, but not like that We think the 10-year/2-year Treasury yield spread will become less inverted over the next year or so, but doubt this will come primarily via a continued rise in the 10-year yield like we saw last week... 7th August 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Is the cost of living crisis coming to an end? With CPI inflation soon to fall below average earnings growth, the cost of living crisis appears to be coming to an end. But households won’t suddenly stop feeling the pinch. We suspect the level of... 7th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Housing rebound has further to run We previously argued that stretched housing affordability and a looser labour market would result in a second leg down in house prices. However, with the housing market going from strength to strength... 7th August 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Halifax House Prices (July 2023) With mortgage rates rising to around 6% in July, it was no surprise that the slide in the Halifax house price index continued. Although there might be a modest fall in mortgage rates in the near term... 7th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly More reasons for the Bank to remain on hold The further rise in the unemployment rate in July and signs that the housing market is cooling again are both reasons to doubt that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates further. 4th August 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation pressure dissipating The news that average hourly earnings growth increased by 0.4% m/m in July, and 4.4% over the past 12 months, might seem like a problem for the Fed. With productivity growth accelerating, however, it... 4th August 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Renewed falls in activity and house prices imminent Our forecast that the Bank of England won’t start cutting interest rates until the second half of 2024 means mortgage rates are likely to stay between 5.5% and 6.0% for the next 12 months. That will... 4th August 2023 · 20 mins read
