Asset Allocation Update Squaring yield curve inversion with the rally in risky assets While the progressive inversion of the Treasury yield curve may seem inconsistent with the recent rebound in risky assets in the US, they had already discounted some bad news about the economy... 30th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude stocks plunged as the refinery utilisation rate rose, net imports fell sharply and strategic reserve releases continued to wind down. However, signs of lower domestic product demand... 30th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to drop down to 25 bp hike The easing of the three-month annualised measures of core inflation in October and signs of broader disinflationary pressure ahead lead us to think the Bank of Canada will drop down to a 25bp interest... 30th November 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IPF Consensus Forecasts (Nov.) The latest IPF Consensus Survey showed further significant downgrades for total returns in 2022 and 2023, as higher interest rates have boosted yields and a looming recession cuts rental growth next... 30th November 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Focus Wage growth to slow as labour market conditions ease As the economy slides into a mild recession in the first half of next year, triggering a rebound in the unemployment rate to almost 5% by end-2023, the resulting slowdown in the growth rates of wages... 30th November 2022 · 16 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Being patient with the pivot Although we agree with the markets that the Bank of England will be patient and won’t pivot from raising interest rates to actually cutting interest rates until 2024, we think that fading inflation... 30th November 2022 · 13 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Lower Bank Rate path won’t prevent repricing As we now think Bank Rate will peak at 4.50% next year as opposed to 5.00%, mortgage rates will be a bit lower in 2023. But ultimately, the surge in mortgage rates over the past year will leave the... 30th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production (Oct. 22) Industrial production saw a steeper contraction in October, while firms’ output forecasts for November and December point to a weak rebound. 30th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Oct.) 30th November 2022 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update More reasons why we don’t think the dollar has peaked (yet) Although the rally in the US dollar has seen a significant reversal over recent weeks, indicators from past turning points in the greenback suggest to us that there remains scope for the dollar to... 29th November 2022 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Sep.) A deterioration in affordability helped the Case-Shiller house price index to fall for the third consecutive month in September. The FHFA reported a small rise in prices, but we think more falls are... 29th November 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Downturn starting to weigh on West Coast markets Third quarter data showed growing evidence of a softening in tenant demand in many metros. In particular, demand appears to be slowing in a number of West Coast markets, as hybrid and remote work... 29th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q3) The stronger-than-expected gain in third-quarter GDP tips the odds slightly toward another 50 bp interest rate hike from the Bank of Canada next week. But, with domestic demand contracting for the... 29th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (November) November’s fall in headline inflation in Germany and Spain suggest that the euro-zone headline rate will come in lower than we had anticipated when it is published tomorrow, and is now close to a peak... 29th November 2022 · 2 mins read
