Commodities Weekly All eyes on US data next week It was a fairly quiet week in commodities markets, although oil prices rose on concerns about earthquake-related disruption to exports from the Turkish port of Ceyhan and Russia’s announcement of a 0... 10th February 2023 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update What a “soft landing” in the US might mean for the greenback Given that US economic outperformance has tended to coincide with a stronger dollar, we suspect a “soft landing” in the US economy would provide a favourable backdrop for the greenback, if it also... 10th February 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Markets coming round to the Fed’s view on rates Markets have continued to swing round to the Fed’s view that rate cuts are unlikely this year. We still believe that those cuts are coming, however, as economic growth disappoints and core inflation... 10th February 2023 · 9 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Slow recovery in sales and further falls in prices Housing market activity is likely to recover only gradually from its current lows, which means we think 2023 will be the weakest year for sales since 2012. Affordability will remain stretched by past... 10th February 2023 · 18 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Retail to split as US nears recession Almost three years on from the pandemic, only middle-income households are yet to recover financially. In the face of a looming downturn, we expect this will drive growth for discounters as middle... 10th February 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Recession or no recession, economy will be very weak The resilience of the economy last year is probably due to a combination of the government’s support, the strong labour market and both households and businesses dipping into some pandemic savings... 10th February 2023 · 9 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Ueda the Unknown Kazuo Ueda was present as a member of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board at the birth of both the Zero Interest Rate Policy in 1999 and Quantitative Easing in 2001 and took the dovish side of arguments... 10th February 2023 · 8 mins read
Japan Rapid Response New BoJ Governor has yet to come out as hawk or dove, but YCC may end either way 10th February 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (Dec. & Q4) The economy escaped a recession in 2022 by the skin of its teeth (£77m to be precise). But with the full drags from high inflation and high interest rates yet to be felt, we think there will be a... 10th February 2023 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Hawkish RBA will lift cash rate above 4% by May With inflation surpassing its forecasts, the Reserve Bank of Australia is becoming increasingly concerned about a wage-price spiral. Accordingly, we’re lifting our forecast for the peak in the cash... 10th February 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update How a mild recession might affect S&P 500 sector performance We doubt the recent renewed outperformance of the “big-tech” sectors of the US stock market will continue in the coming months given the prospect of a mild recession, even if TIPS yields fall again. 9th February 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Growing signs affordability will constrain rental demand We expect stretched affordability and rising unemployment to lead to an increase in rental arrears and evictions in the coming quarters, causing rental household formation to turn negative and... 9th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We think bond yields will fall further despite QT Shrinking central bank balance sheets might push up “term premia” on long-dated government bonds, but we think their yields will nonetheless fall a bit further this year. 9th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Services inflation already slowing Overall services price growth has already slowed but, for the Bank of Canada to loosen policy, we will need to see far more convincing signs of lower inflation in the most labour-intensive service... 9th February 2023 · 2 mins read
