UK Economics Weekly Eroding trust in data leaves policymakers in a bind In recent months there has been a growing number of question marks over the accuracy of key economic data. As a result, it’s more important than usual to not put too much weight on any one indicator... 27th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Uptick in global trade unlikely to be sustained for long Global goods trade rose slightly in August and timelier data point to further gains in September. But we expect global trade to fall again in due course as economic downturns in several advanced... 27th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update New forecasts for developed market government bonds In line with our upwardly revised forecasts for the 10-year US Treasury yield, we’ve raised our projections for 10-year government bond yields in most other developed market economies. But we still... 27th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ will probably leave yield cap unchanged for now Media reports suggest that the Bank of Japan may tweak Yield Curve Control yet again at next week’s meeting, but we aren’t convinced the Bank will lift the 10-year yield cap just three months after... 27th October 2023 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Stakes rise for RBA’s November policy decision With inflation surprising on the upside and the labour market running out of spare capacity, the case for the RBA to tighten policy has never been more compelling. Although RBA Governor Michele... 27th October 2023 · 8 mins read
US Commercial Property Update RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q3) The Q3 RICS survey indicated occupier and investment sentiment fell further in Q3, with the latter reflected in weak investment volumes throughout the summer months. But tight credit conditions and a... 26th October 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q3 2023) Having started the year on a somewhat promising footing, all-property occupier demand has weakened since and fell further in Q3. The demand balances for offices and retail remained significantly... 26th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank’s tightening cycle likely to be over Norges Bank is almost certain to leave its policy rate unchanged at 4.25% next week. And we suspect that, given September’s weak inflation data, it will also soften its language about implementing one... 26th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update On the relative appeal of US corporate bonds and equities Although US high-yield (HY) corporate bonds are more attractively valued than at any time since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), we doubt they will outperform US equities over the next couple of... 26th October 2023 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Update Raising our mortgage rate forecasts Our new higher forecasts for US Treasury yields mean that mortgage rates won’t fall as quickly as we previously predicted. While we still expect mortgage rates to decline they are unlikely to fall... 26th October 2023 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Wage growth still on firm downward trend After the 336,000 jump in non-farm payrolls in September, we expect a more modest 200,000 increase in October. Moreover, despite some strength in labour demand, wage growth continues to ease. 26th October 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update NCREIF Property Index (Q3 2023) The -1.4% quarterly return in Q3 meant that there have now been four consecutive negative quarters for all-property total returns. That figure was dragged down by a 5% q/q fall in office values as all... 26th October 2023 · 3 mins read
BoE Watch A long time on the top of the mountain We think the Bank of England will leave interest rates unchanged at 5.25% for the second policy meeting in a row on Thursday 2nd November, that rates will stay at their peak for a bit longer than most... 26th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Canada Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Strong immigration is unlikely to be enough to prevent a mild recession, with GDP contracting... 25th October 2023 · 1 min read
