Japan Data Response Japan GDP (Q4 2022 Preliminary) Japan’s economy returned to growth in Q4, avoiding a technical recession after the contraction in Q3. With business investment slowing even quicker than we anticipated and a lower savings rate leaving... 14th February 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Jan.) The expected slowdown in net lending to real estate began to show in January. This was seen across all sectors and the latest Senior Loan Officer survey suggested this will continue, as banks cited a... 13th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Does unemployment need to rise? Central banks need wage growth to slow significantly before they can judge that inflation is firmly under control. The least painful way for this to happen is for the recent rise in “mismatch” between... 13th February 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Strong employment won’t force the Bank to do more The surge in employment and rise in hours worked in January suggest that economic activity continued to expand at the start of 2023 and present clear upside risks to our forecasts for GDP growth... 10th February 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar edges higher ahead of US CPI data next week The US dollar is set to end the week a touch stronger against most currencies, adding to its gains last week. But, aside from the Japanese yen round-tripping on news over the next BoJ governor, it’s... 10th February 2023 · 11 mins read
FX Markets Update What a “soft landing” in the US might mean for the greenback Given that US economic outperformance has tended to coincide with a stronger dollar, we suspect a “soft landing” in the US economy would provide a favourable backdrop for the greenback, if it also... 10th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly All eyes on US data next week It was a fairly quiet week in commodities markets, although oil prices rose on concerns about earthquake-related disruption to exports from the Turkish port of Ceyhan and Russia’s announcement of a 0... 10th February 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Markets coming round to the Fed’s view on rates Markets have continued to swing round to the Fed’s view that rate cuts are unlikely this year. We still believe that those cuts are coming, however, as economic growth disappoints and core inflation... 10th February 2023 · 9 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Slow recovery in sales and further falls in prices Housing market activity is likely to recover only gradually from its current lows, which means we think 2023 will be the weakest year for sales since 2012. Affordability will remain stretched by past... 10th February 2023 · 18 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Retail to split as US nears recession Almost three years on from the pandemic, only middle-income households are yet to recover financially. In the face of a looming downturn, we expect this will drive growth for discounters as middle... 10th February 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Recession or no recession, economy will be very weak The resilience of the economy last year is probably due to a combination of the government’s support, the strong labour market and both households and businesses dipping into some pandemic savings... 10th February 2023 · 9 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Ueda the Unknown Kazuo Ueda was present as a member of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board at the birth of both the Zero Interest Rate Policy in 1999 and Quantitative Easing in 2001 and took the dovish side of arguments... 10th February 2023 · 8 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (Dec. & Q4) The economy escaped a recession in 2022 by the skin of its teeth (£77m to be precise). But with the full drags from high inflation and high interest rates yet to be felt, we think there will be a... 10th February 2023 · 5 mins read
