Capital Daily A tale of two pandemics and the importance of valuations Those hoping for stellar gains in the US stock market in the post-COVID years may be disappointed. Its valuation is far less appealing now than it was at the end of the big pandemic of the 20th... 20th February 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Comparing CE forecasts to the consensus Being ranked by the Sunday Times as the top UK economic forecaster for 2022 is a great accolade and has generated a lot of interest in what we expect to happen next. Our forecasts for 2023 imply a... 20th February 2023 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Jan.) The fall in the Riksbank’s target measure of inflation was largely due to a huge one-off drop in electricity prices but policymakers will focus more on the big increase in core inflation. This... 20th February 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Price correction gathering pace While the recent economic data have surprised on the upside, property market indicators were broadly worse than expected in Q4. Occupier demand softened, particularly in the office and apartment... 17th February 2023 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank still in wait-and-see mode Governor Tiff Macklem reiterated this week that the Bank of Canada wants time to assess the impact of high interest rates, suggesting it will not respond to the strength of employment by immediately... 17th February 2023 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Update Demographics to boost homeownership in 2024 There are growing signs that stretched affordability is weighing on homeownership, particularly for the under 35s. We expect this to persist in the coming quarters. But there is a large pool of young... 17th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Reassessing the implications of disinflation for US equities While more disinflation may yet benefit the US stock market by, for example, facilitating a renewed decline in TIPS yields and boosting profits from the rest of the world if accompanied by a weaker... 17th February 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Domestic inflation easing, but labour market still tight The easing in core services inflation suggests that interest rates won't rise much further, perhaps from 4.00% now to a peak of 4.25% or 4.50%. But we suspect the Bank of England will need to see more... 17th February 2023 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Economy starts the year on a strong footing Echoing the unexpectedly large increase in payroll employment last month, January’s retail sales and manufacturing output data were unquestionably strong too. Admittedly, retail sales appear to have... 17th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Has core inflation already peaked? A leading ECB dove argued this week that core inflation has passed its peak on some measures. However, these measures are distorted by Germany’s temporary transport subsidies last summer. Underlying... 17th February 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Is the worst behind us? This week’s data contained encouraging signs that inflationary pressures are fading, and the risks to our view that Bank Rate will rise to 4.5% this year now lie to the downside. The January MSCI data... 17th February 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The rebound in retail sales in January was better than expected, had echoes of the leap in US retail sales and suggests that the festive/new year period wasn’t a complete write-off. But while 2023 is... 17th February 2023 · 3 mins read
