RBA Watch Recent data not enough for the RBA to shift course In recent weeks, the Reserve Bank of Australia has continued to push back against expectations of monetary tightening. We think the RBA will keep policy settings unchanged at the meeting on 6th April... 31st March 2021 · 7 mins read
RBA Watch Policy to remain looser for longer The Reserve Bank of Australia will keep policy settings unchanged at the meeting on 2nd March and will probably push back against mounting expectations of policy tightening. 24th February 2021 · 8 mins read
RBA Watch RBA may end QE in April While the Reserve Bank of Australia will present more upbeat forecasts for GDP growth, inflation and the labour market at its meeting on Tuesday 2nd February, we suspect it will still sound dovish... 27th January 2021 · 7 mins read
RBA Watch RBA probably won’t extend QE any further next year The Reserve Bank of Australia won’t make any policy changes at its meeting on 1st December. And with the labour market improving much faster than the Bank had anticipated and the prospect of a vaccine... 24th November 2020 · 7 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to cut rates to 0.10% and launch QE The Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates and launch quantitative easing at its upcoming meeting on Melbourne Cup Day. We suspect that aggressive monetary and fiscal stimulus will pave the... 28th October 2020 · 7 mins read
RBA Watch Australia - RBA to cut rates and launch more QE The Reserve Bank of Australia has become more downbeat about the prospects for inflation and wage growth. While it could wait until November, we think it will announce further interest rate cuts and... 29th September 2020 · 7 mins read
RBA Watch Bank to resume bond purchases in earnest The Reserve Bank of Australia isn’t keen on providing more monetary stimulus and instead wants the government to do the heavy lifting. As such, the Bank will certainly keep policy settings unchanged... 25th August 2020 · 7 mins read
RBA Watch Plunge in inflation to eventually trigger more easing The renewed lockdown in Melbourne is set to undermine the recovery and will push inflation much further below the 2% target than the Reserve Bank of Australia is currently anticipating. We still think... 29th July 2020 · 7 mins read
RBA Watch More stimulus needed before long Given that the economy has coped better with the pandemic than the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) had anticipated, the Bank probably won’t provide additional easing over the next few months. However... 30th June 2020 · 7 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to launch quantitative easing in earnest We suspect that the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep policy settings unchanged at the meeting on 2nd June. But with the Bank’s employment and price stability goals moving out of reach, we expect... 26th May 2020 · 7 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to stay the course The continued easing in financial market tensions suggests that the Reserve Bank of Australia won’t announce any major new measures at its meeting on Tuesday, 5th May. And with unemployment set to... 28th April 2020 · 6 mins read
RBA Watch RBA may yet have to launch negative rates The recent easing in financial markets suggests that the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) won’t announce major decisions at the upcoming meeting on 7th April. Looking further ahead though, the Bank... 2nd April 2020 · 6 mins read
RBA Watch RBA can’t ignore weak labour market much longer The Reserve Bank of Australia remains worried that further loosening will provide additional fuel to soaring property prices and won’t cut interest rates at the meeting on Tuesday 3rd March. But with... 25th February 2020 · 7 mins read
RBA Watch RBA not off the hook yet The further fall in the unemployment rate in December should convince the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep rates unchanged at the meeting on 4th February. But the Bank will probably downgrade... 29th January 2020 · 6 mins read
RBA Watch RBA should reach the rate floor & begin QE in 2020 The economic data have continued to deteriorate in line with our forecasts. In particular, the unemployment rate rose again to 5.3% in October and real retail sales declined in Q3 despite the... 27th November 2019 · 7 mins read
RBA Watch Quantitative easing more likely than not Falling unemployment and steady inflation will allow the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.75% at the meeting on Tuesday, 5th November. However, we expect the... 30th October 2019 · 7 mins read