Stronger growth based on shaky foundations

We are gradually getting a clearer idea of how GDP growth in the third quarter shaped up. And so far, it is looking like it will be a pretty good number. But we doubt that the recent improvement will last. Indeed, a number of temporary factors have boosted activity and there is little sign that the fundamental drivers of growth have improved much. Overall, we have not changed our view that GDP growth this year as a whole will come in at 1.3% – the slowest annual rate since the crisis.