Colombia: regional outperformer in 2022

The robust 1.5% q/q rise in Colombia’s GDP in Q2 suggests that the economy’s recovery will be among the strongest in the region this year. Strong growth, alongside upside inflation surprises and the fragile external position mean that the central bank’s tightening cycle has a bit further to run. We expect the policy rate to be raised to 10.50% by October (previously 9.50%), from 9.00% now.

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