China rebound to boost emissions; EU targets shipping

The pick-up in our China Activity Proxy in March suggests that carbon dioxide emissions from the country ended Q1 growing at the fastest year-on-year rate since mid-2021. With the economy now expected to grow more quickly than we previously anticipated this year, this will put corresponding upward pressure on emissions. But we are optimistic that the relationship between emissions and economic activity will weaken and ultimately decouple in the 2030s and 2040s.