US Housing Market Update Why is confidence in the housing market relatively subdued? Survey evidence which points to relatively subdued levels of confidence in the housing market is not a sign that households are unduly worried about the prospect of rising interest rates. Rather, it... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Does slowing rental growth pose a risk for house prices? Affordability constraints have weighed on rental growth in recent months which, in theory, could lead to slower house price gains. However, the large number of variables which influence house prices... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Explaining the divergence between pending and existing sales The gap that has developed between pending and existing home sales looks to be one more consequence of very low inventory levels. With such limited choice, buyers are increasingly reluctant to pull... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Has the shift to single-family starts stalled? Following a dip towards the end of last year, the share of multifamily starts has recovered and builders have become more optimistic towards the sector. Our expectation for a shift toward single... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Where will new single-family homes be built? For the most part, states with strong income growth and low homeowner vacancy rates will see the largest gains in single-family housing starts. The majority of those are in the West, although Florida... 12th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Housing in energy-producing states not yet out of the woods As oil prices have seen a modest pick-up, so has employment growth in many energy-producing states. But, given the lags between changes in the labour market and its impact on the housing market, as... 6th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Will rolling-back regulations help increase housing starts? The executive order requiring a review of the Waters of the United States rule has pushed homebuilder confidence to a 12-year high. However, the rule has been suspended since its introduction in 2015... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update How will the rental market react to rising interest rates? Other things equal, higher Treasury yields means investors will require a higher return from property. Some investors may therefore start easing back on acquisitions, putting downward pressure on... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Can rising interest rates boost the housing inventory? Low interest rates help to explain the rising the number of vacant homes and the steady fall in the housing inventory in recent years. Rebuilding the inventory will take time, but higher interest... 9th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Will home movers be left stranded by rising mortgage rates? As interest rates rise, one concern is that a reluctance to give up a record low mortgage rate will deter Americans from moving home, restricting sales. But while that may put some households off... 2nd March 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Will the young ever move out? Despite an improving economic backdrop, the share of young adults living with their parents increased yet again in 2016. In part, that may reflect the influence of structural demographic factors as... 23rd January 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update The wall will constrain, but not derail, housing starts As it stands, construction of the wall along the southern border is still very much on Trump’s agenda. Alongside a rise in other infrastructure spending, that is likely to worsen labour and material... 17th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Cut in FHA mortgage insurance costs will support house prices The 25bps cut to the annual insurance premiums for mortgages backed by the FHA will offset some of the recent rise in mortgage rates. But with inventory levels very low, the primary impact of any... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Home sales can withstand the coming rise in mortgage rates In contrast to the rise in mortgage rates following the 2013 taper tantrum, the latest jump in rates is due to expectations of a fiscal stimulus, not concerns about a less supportive monetary policy... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update No need for panic over coming drop in multifamily starts The latest NAHB survey on builders’ expectations for multifamily production points to a 15% drop in starts over the next year. But with the demand for rental accommodation set to hold up, we don’t... 14th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update What might the Trump victory mean for the housing market? Trump’s victory has been accompanied by a rise in 10-year Treasury yields as markets now expect looser fiscal policy. All else equal, that will push up mortgage rates. To date, Trump has said little... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
