US Housing Market Update Earnings accelerate, but rents won’t follow suit The acceleration in earnings growth to close to a 10-year high in December will not boost rental growth. While stronger earnings will support rental demand, the large number of new apartments being... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Why our house price forecast is bottom of the pack Our forecast for a rise in house prices of 2% in 2019 is close to the bottom of consensus. That view is supported by evidence that housing market conditions have loosened, and that the size of... 15th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Key calls for 2019 Our forecast for a steady decline in mortgage rates over 2019, to 4.3% by the end of the year, is significantly below consensus. But, despite that, we have below-consensus calls for home sales and... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Mortgage market can weather the shutdown If it continues, the partial Federal shutdown is likely to lead to a decline in the mortgage closing rate. But lenders showed flexibility to get around the virtual closure of the FHA and IRS during... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Lower interest rates not enough to boost home sales We expect home sales will end 2020 only slightly higher than they are today. Admittedly, the drop in mortgage interest rates seen over the past few weeks has given a boost to mortgage applications... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Surge in new home supply won’t crash house prices On past form the jump in the months’ supply of new homes to an eight-year high would be consistent with outright falls in national house prices. However, the existing home inventory is not far off... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Amazon HQ2s will give small boost to rental demand Amazon’s decision to base its new, secondary HQs in New York City and Northern Virginia does not mean that rental markets in these cities will enjoy the kind of surge seen in Seattle. At the margins... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update It’s not all bad news in the housing market Amongst all the housing market gloom it is easy to overlook the fact that homes are selling quickly, prospective buyer traffic volumes are high and mortgage lenders are approving a high share of... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Under-35 homeownership rate will soon flatten out Unlike some, we do not think that the latest rise in homeownership among the under 35s heralds an imminent revival in housing market activity. In fact, it tells us more about the previous strength of... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Rise in adjustable-rate mortgage share not a concern Rising interest rates have led to an increase in the share of mortgages originated with an adjustable rate (ARMs). But the market share is still small, and the products have not been targeted at... 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update House price crash unlikely A sharp drop in the share of homes seeing an increase in value over the past year is ringing alarm bells in some quarters. But the fact that housing demand is flat lining, rather than contracting and... 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Is rate lock-in weighing on home sales? Households electing not to move to avoid giving up a record low, fixed mortgage rate provide one potential explanation for the slowdown in home sales in recent months. However, the available evidence... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Hurricane Florence and mortgage delinquencies Experience from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma last year suggests the share of delinquent mortgages in the Carolinas, Virginia and Georgia will rise following Hurricane Florence. However, with the... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Drop in lumber price a small positive for housing starts There are a couple of reasons to hope that the drop in lumber prices over the past couple of months will be a positive for the housing market. First, it should encourage builders to start work on the... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Affordability at 10-year low, but no need to panic Housing affordability has reached a 10-year low. Even so, homes are still more affordable now than at any time prior to 2009. Accordingly, improving inventory levels and further gradual easing in... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Slowing demand a downside risk for housing starts Alongside lot, labour and material shortages, builders are now having to contend with growing evidence that the sales environment is becoming more testing. While the strong labour market, and lack of... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
