US Housing Market Update Tax plan cuts the mortgage interest deduction The tax bill released today halved the size of new mortgages from which interest can be deducted, from $1 million to $500,000. That will hit prices of homes valued at over $500,000, and the... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update NAFTA concerns boost lumber price Concerns that the US will withdraw from NAFTA has led to a jump in the price of lumber. Prices are now at a 4½ year high. However given that lumber accounts for a relatively small share of overall... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Why are new homes shrinking? The average floor area of new homes has been shrinking over the past 18-months. Smaller lot sizes may be partly responsible. But we suspect the key driver is increased construction and land costs... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Are concerns about labour shortages justified? The slowdown in construction employment and earnings growth looks, at first glance, to be inconsistent with builders’ growing complaints about labour shortages. But with job openings rising, and house... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Home valuations are not at dangerous levels A comparison of median new home prices to median household income implies that housing valuations are at levels which could foreshadow a price correction. But we put more faith in valuation measures... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Hurricanes and housing market activity Despite damaging around half a million homes, Hurricane Katrina had no discernible impact on home sales or housing starts in the South compared to other regions. Accordingly, we are not expecting a... 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Will Harvey lead to a surge in mortgage delinquencies? Concerns that Hurricane Harvey will lead to a surge in mortgage delinquencies look over done. Houston has one of the highest levels of home equity in the country, which will persuade many mortgage... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Subdued new home sales are not holding back starts It is tempting to link the recent softness in new home sales to builders’ apparent reluctance to up the construction of single-family homes. But with new homes selling very quickly, and a rising share... 31st August 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Worsening affordability not to blame for subdued home sales The average monthly mortgage payment has reached a nine-year high at the same time as home sales have stalled, but we doubt the first is causing the second. The fact home sales are being agreed in... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Drop in multifamily starts will support rental growth Developers have responded quickly to signs that rental vacancy rates in multifamily buildings are edging up, with starts over the past three months reaching their lowest level in four years. That... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update What can inventory tell us about state-level house prices? In the absence of state-level data on the months’ supply of unsold homes, a comparison of inventory levels in each state to their long-run average has, in the past, proved a reasonable leading... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Non-residents buy more homes despite strong dollar Even with a strong dollar pushing up the price of US homes for most foreign buyers, in the year to March non-resident buyers increased their spending on residential property by 72%. We suspect fears... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Cautious appraisals holding down house price growth Experience suggests that with housing market conditions so tight, house prices should be rising considerably faster than their current rate of around 6% y/y. One reason why they are not may be that... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Distressed sales are still distorting house prices The Case-Shiller index has reported a sharp easing in seasonally-adjusted house price growth in the early stages of this year. But there are good reasons to think that the legacy of the surge in... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Will smaller footprints give a lift to new home sales? The drop in the average floor area of new homes started in the first quarter suggests builders are now moving towards constructing more affordable homes. And, given that a lack of cheaper homes has... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Rise in selling sentiment won’t cure low inventory levels The share of households seeing now as a good time to sell has exceeded the share seeing now as a good to buy for the first time since records began in 2010. But, past rises in selling sentiment have... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
