US Economics Update Risk of Federal government shutdown can't be dismissed Congress is about to enter the critical stage of negotiations to extend the Federal government's spending authority, which will otherwise expire when the new fiscal year begins on 1st October, and, in... 20th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed delays taper; then fails to offer a clear explanation why The Fed's decision to maintain its asset purchases at $85bn per month was, given that most commentators expected a modest reduction in the pace today, unsurprisingly bond and equity positive. We... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update America’s daunting long-term debt problem The CBO's latest projections show that America’s long-term debt problem is slightly less daunting than it previously appeared to be. Nevertheless, at some point policymakers will still need to tackle... 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) The slight moderation in the annual growth rate of the broad monetary aggregates should help to ease fears that the Fed's quantitative easing is putting upward pressure on price inflation. The growth... 16th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US exporters benefitting from euro-zone recovery Over the next two years, US exporters will continue to benefit from the recovery in overseas demand, particularly in the euro-zone. But the global economy is unlikely to be strong enough to generate... 11th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed still on course to begin QE taper in September While it's far from a certainty, the minutes from the FOMC meeting in late July appear to support our view that the Fed will begin to slow its monthly asset purchases at the next meeting in mid... 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Vehicle sales may soon shift into a higher gear A fall in new vehicle prices and a further improvement in the availability of auto loans, especially to households with lower credit scores, may soon trigger a more rapid rebound in vehicle sales. 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Productivity stagnation bodes ill for potential GDP growth After incorporating the revisions to the historical GDP figures, America's recent productivity performance looks even worse. The stagnation in productivity isn't going to have any major impact on Fed... 16th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The Fed's continuing monthly asset purchases haven't prevented a further slowdown in the growth rate of the narrow M1 monetary aggregate, although our measure of the M3 aggregate suggests that broad... 14th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed likely to begin QE taper in September There is nothing in the latest FOMC statement released today to suggest that Fed officials have changed their minds about starting to taper the monthly asset purchases in September. 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update New Fed Chair unlikely to alter policy outlook much Contrary to the speculation over the past few days, regardless of whether Lawrence Summers, Janet Yellen or a third candidate gets the nod, we suspect that the outlook for US monetary policy would... 29th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update No systemic risk from Detroit bankruptcy The filing for bankruptcy by the City of Detroit last night does not pose a systemic risk to America’s financial system. The amount of debt that Detroit is likely to default on is small compared with... 19th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Bernanke reiterates the party line Even though Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke just repeated the party line in a slightly different way in his semi-annual testimony to Congress today, the message that the tapering of QE3 is not set in stone... 17th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) Broad money growth has stabilised at a healthy rate, but the further slowdown in the growth rate of bank lending is disconcerting. 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Small businesses faring better The recent improvement in the sentiment among small businesses is an encouraging sign that the overall economy is becoming fundamentally stronger, although changes to taxes and regulations will... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is this now a “job-full” recovery? The economy has recently been enjoying something of a “job-full” recovery as employment has been rising at a faster rate than GDP. Activity will probably catch up later this year, but in the near-term... 9th July 2013 · 1 min read
