US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) Looser credit conditions, lower loan rates and the stronger economic outlook have continued to boost bank lending to businesses. This supports our view that business investment growth will accelerate... 21st April 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Latest labour market data refute Yellen's slack claims The latest round of jobs data released over the past few days would appear to refute Fed Chair Janet Yellen's recent claims that there is still considerable slack in the labour market. 8th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Autos and ACA enrolees support consumption growth The rebound in auto sales in March and the rush to sign up for health insurance in recent weeks means that the slowdown in real consumption growth in the first quarter may not be as marked as... 2nd April 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update PCE inflation won't be this low for long The fall in PCE inflation to just 0.9% in February probably marks the low point in this cycle and we suspect that the Fed will be surprised by how fast inflation rebounds over the next 18 months. 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will the long-term unemployed ever get back to work? If there is little prospect of getting the long-term unemployed, who account for an unusually large share of the overall jobless rate, back into work then wage growth could accelerate faster than the... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed sticks to QE taper, drops unemployment threshold As expected, the Fed continued to taper its asset purchases and dropped its explicit unemployment rate threshold, reverting to a more qualitative form of forward guidance in today's policy statement... 19th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Weather adds to upside risks to food inflation As a lot of the surge in food prices in February is due to the extreme weather, it is unlikely to be sustained. Nonetheless, the risks to our forecast that food price inflation will climb from 1.4% in... 19th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb 14.) The surge in bank lending to businesses in February could be an early sign that small firms are becoming more optimistic. Either way, the growth rate of bank lending will rise further this year as the... 18th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update There is no hidden rot in the jobs numbers The slump in average weekly hours worked over the past few months is undoubtedly weather-related and we expect to see a bounce back in the spring. 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Pick-up in wage growth may be genuine It will be a few months yet before we know for sure whether or not the recent pick-up in wage growth is just a temporary distortion caused by the unusually severe weather, but it does chime with the... 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update State & local government spending will soon rebound We’re not very concerned by the recent decline in State and local government spending when States’ own spending plans are consistent with a decent rebound both this year and next. This will compliment... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Higher natural gas price may boost mining investment The biggest and longest-lasting impact from the recent rise in natural gas prices could be a boost to business investment in mining structures. That could add 0.3 percentage points to annual GDP... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) Broad money growth appears to have stabilised, with our measure of the M3 aggregate rebounding slightly to 4.6% in January, from 4.4%. (See Chart below.) Elsewhere, the slowdown in the growth rate of... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Making sense of the weather effect Our best guess is that the severe weather has played a key role in the apparent deterioration in the incoming economic data for December and January. With much of the country currently digging out... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Yellen indicates that the Fed will continue with QE taper The two key takeaways from new Fed Chair Janet Yellen's first congressional testimony on monetary policy is that neither the recent drop off in the pace of employment growth nor the turmoil in... 11th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Indicators point to labour market strength The latest improvements in small business hiring and labour market turnover indicate that the fall in the unemployment rate may be a more accurate gauge of labour market slack than the Fed currently... 11th February 2014 · 1 min read
