UK Economics Focus Housing equity withdrawal to grind to a halt As the credit crunch bites and house prices fall, we expect housing (also known as mortgage) equity withdrawal (HEW) to dry up almost completely over the next couple of years. Although only a fraction... 22nd April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The economic damage from the other property crash The weakening housing market has diverted attention from the crash which has already occurred in the commercial property market. But the commercial property downturn could hit the wider economy by... 9th April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Are inflation expectations really so important? Inflation expectations may not be quite as important an influence on actual inflation as the Monetary Policy Committee appears to believe. Accordingly, there is a danger that the Committee keeps... 31st March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Consumer dangers just as great in the UK The parallels between UK and US consumers are disturbing, with the UK consumer sector having seen just as big a build-up of imbalances as that in the US. The UK could therefore soon find itself... 19th March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Consumer dangers just as great in the UK The parallels between UK and US consumers are disturbing, with the UK consumer sector having seen just as big a build-up of imbalances as that in the US. The UK could therefore soon find itself... 19th March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus UK Budget 2008 - Hoping for the best! This Budget was conspicuously short of major tax and spending measures. The main interest was therefore in the change to the Treasury’s economic forecasts and the associated projections for government... 12th March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus UK Budget 2008 - Hoping for the best! This Budget was conspicuously short of major tax and spending measures. The main interest was therefore in the change to the Treasury’s economic forecasts and the associated projections for government... 12th March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Caught between a Rock... Alistair Darling presents his first Budget at a time when the apparent needs of the economy and the public finances could hardly be further apart. His room for manoeuvre is pretty tight, but he might... 3rd March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Caught between a Rock... Alistair Darling presents his first Budget at a time when the apparent needs of the economy and the public finances could hardly be further apart. His room for manoeuvre is pretty tight, but he might... 3rd March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How hard will the credit crisis hit the City? We estimate that two thirds of the financial and business services (FBS) sector – or one fifth of the total economy - will be directly adversely affected by the recent turmoil in financial markets. We... 28th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Just how bad could the public finances get? A major downturn in the UK economy could see public borrowing rise as high as £100bn or even £150bn per annum, blowing the fiscal framework to smithereens and perhaps even leading to some rise in the... 14th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Unemployment to hit ten-year high The labour market is set to be a prime casualty of the prolonged slowdown in the UK economy that is underway. We think unemployment will rise by about 700,000 by the end of 2009, taking the... 4th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Unemployment to hit ten-year high The labour market is set to be a prime casualty of the prolonged slowdown in the UK economy that is underway. We think unemployment will rise by about 700,000 by the end of 2009, taking the... 4th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Has manufacturing really reinvented itself? The structural reforms undertaken by manufacturers over the past decade are likely to cushion the blow from the global and domestic slowdowns. But the sector is still likely to enter a recession this... 22nd January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The final blow for consumers? We are confident that the housing market slowdown will bring the recent strong rates of household spending growth to an end. At the same time, we are optimistic that aggressive interest rate cuts will... 21st January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The final blow for consumers? We are confident that the housing market slowdown will bring the recent strong rates of household spending growth to an end. At the same time, we are optimistic that aggressive interest rate cuts will... 21st January 2008 · 1 min read
