UK Economics Focus The hardest part of QE is yet to come We do not think that reversing quantitative easing (QE) is an immediate concern for the Bank of England. Not only will the large amount of spare capacity keep inflationary pressures subdued for some... 13th July 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How will the policymakers respond to recovery? The markets have assumed that the initial and main policy response to a recovery in the UK economy will come from higher interest rates, and at a fairly early stage. But there are some good reasons... 6th July 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Why is UK retail spending so strong? One of the puzzles of this recession is why consumer spending on the high street is so much stronger than spending off it. The credit crunch driven nature of the slowdown appears to have played a key... 15th June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is the lower pound already helping? On the face of it, the plummeting level of UK exports suggests that the sharp drop in the sterling exchange rate over the last year or two has done nothing to cushion the UK’s external sector from the... 27th May 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Pay cuts intensify deflation danger Average earnings in the UK are already falling outright for the first time since the 1930s. We expect them to fall further, intensifying the risk of a prolonged period of deflation. 18th May 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Pay cuts intensify deflation danger Average earnings in the UK are already falling outright for the first time since the 1930s. We expect them to fall further, intensifying the risk of a prolonged period of deflation. 18th May 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can the UK make the most of the lower pound? Concerns have been expressed that the UK’s export-dependent sectors, most notably manufacturing, no longer have the key ingredients necessary to make the most of the boost to their competitiveness... 12th May 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2009 - The tip of the iceberg This Budget was a holding operation which left the really tough decisions required to sort out the public finances to be taken by whoever is Chancellor after the next election. The tax increases and... 22nd April 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Which parts of consumer spending will recover first? Past experience suggests that durable consumer goods (such as household appliances) will be the first area of consumer spending to turn the corner in this recession, while spending on consumer... 15th April 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2009 Preview - The great borrowing binge goes on Chancellor Alistair Darling faces the unenviable task in his second Budget of trying to offer the economy some much-needed support, whilst at the same time reassuring the markets that the public... 8th April 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Just how deep is this fiscal mess? We have warned all along that the UK’s public finances were likely to suffer a much greater deterioration in the current downturn than the Chancellor and most other forecasters anticipated. But the... 27th March 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Lending measures will not fill the hole Lending by those banks which are either wholly or partially state-owned is set to rise significantly. But we continue to doubt that overall lending is on track to grow at the rates needed to get the... 16th March 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will the lower pound stave off deflation? The sharp drop in the sterling exchange rate does not preclude the danger that a short bout of deflation driven by commodity prices later this year will be followed by a broader and longerlasting... 2nd March 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Drag from stockbuilding to ease A fall in stockbuilding helps to explain why the economy contracted quite so sharply at the end of last year. Stocks are run down most at the start of a recession, suggesting that GDP should not keep... 25th February 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Consumer spending rebound unlikely to last The strength of high street spending over the past month or two begs the question of whether we have underestimated the resilience of UK consumers. However, we continue to think that the consumer... 23rd February 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Consumer spending rebound unlikely to last The strength of high street spending over the past month or two begs the question of whether we have underestimated the resilience of UK consumers. However, we continue to think that the consumer... 23rd February 2009 · 1 min read
