UK Economics Focus The pros and cons of bank nationalisation Speculation is growing that the Government will soon take a majority stake in Lloyds, representing another step towards full nationalisation of large parts of the banking system. Full nationalisation... 16th February 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can pay freezes prevent further job losses? A number of companies have announced pay freezes in the past week or two. However, even if a significant proportion of the workforce foregoes a pay rise this year, we doubt that further sharp rises in... 11th February 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The anatomy of the Great Depression of the 1930s There is still no universally accepted single cause of the Great Depression. But our analysis suggests that the main culprit for the role of catalyst was the bursting of the bubbles in the equity and... 19th January 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What more can policymakers do? Should UK interest rates fall to zero, it is likely that UK policymakers will follow in the footsteps of the US Federal Reserve and adopt a formal policy of quantitative easing (QE). While QE is a... 16th January 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Much bolder action required to boost bank lending Faced with soaring recession-related bad debts, we doubt that banks, if left to their own devices, will start lending enough to kick-start the economy. The Government will therefore have to force them... 15th January 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How to spot a recovery – the evidence from past recessions If the recession is to end next year, as is widely expected, past experience suggests that we should already be seeing turning points in leading indicators such as confidence. But with the economic... 18th December 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How to spot a recovery – the evidence from past recessions If the recession is to end next year, as is widely expected, past experience suggests that we should already be seeing turning points in leading indicators such as confidence. But with the economic... 18th December 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will quantitative easing work? Quantitative easing (QE) is a potentially very powerful tool that could pull economies out of recession and deflation. However, to work fully it may have to be combined with additional measures to... 17th December 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Life insurers better placed than the banks Now that the Government has stepped in to bail out the UK banks, attention has shifted to which other areas of the financial sector might be in serious trouble. While the insurance sector certainly... 1st December 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Pre-Budget Report 2008 While the Chancellor was right to try to support the economy with a fiscal boost, he was constrained by the prospect of enormous increases in public borrowing from being able to do nearly enough... 24th November 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Falling inflation won't prevent consumer slump. Falling inflation will provide a significant boost to households’ spending power over the coming quarters. However, we doubt that real household income growth will rebound strongly enough to prevent... 18th November 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Falling inflation won't prevent consumer slump. Falling inflation will provide a significant boost to households’ spending power over the coming quarters. However, we doubt that real household income growth will rebound strongly enough to prevent... 18th November 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Pre-Budget Report 2008 – Preview Alistair Darling may be the man at the despatch box, but the main architect of this Pre-Budget Report will be John Maynard Keynes. With the Government having firmly signalled its intention to support... 13th November 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The rebirth of deflation The last year or so has seen widespread concerns that inflation has returned from the dead. But with global commodity prices falling and a deep recession in the UK economy set to create huge amounts... 11th November 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How far will global house prices fall? To date, only a few major economies have been afflicted by large scale falls in house prices. But all that will change in 2009. Housing is significantly overvalued across much of Europe, as well as in... 29th October 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The road to deflation? Inflation pressures across the world are set to fade rapidly over the coming months. Indeed, with oil prices plummeting, food prices set to fall and much weaker levels of demand and activity likely to... 16th October 2008 · 1 min read
