RBA Watch RBA to hike aggressively as inflation surges With Governor Lowe warming to the idea of tighter policy, we’re sticking to our forecast that the RBA will start to hike rates in June. Our forecast that rates will peak at 1.75% is above the analyst... 30th March 2022 · 8 mins read
RBA Watch Further jump in inflation to prompt June rate hike We now expect the RBA to start hiking in June in response to stubbornly high inflation. And while high household debt is a concern, the extreme tightness of the labour market coupled with continued... 23rd February 2022 · 7 mins read
RBA Watch Surge in inflation will prompt first rate hike in August The rapid tightening of the labour market coupled with the acceleration in underlying inflation will prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to end its asset purchases at its meeting on Tuesday 1 st... 25th January 2022 · 7 mins read
RBA Watch Market pricing on RBA still too optimistic The rapid rebound in activity from the recent lockdowns coupled with a further pick-up in underlying inflation should prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to taper its bond purchases in February and... 30th November 2021 · 7 mins read
RBA Watch RBA’s dovish view increasingly under pressure The acceleration in underlying inflation increases the pressure on the RBA to adjust its forward guidance. But with wage growth still sluggish, we think it will stick to its pledge that rate hikes are... 27th October 2021 · 8 mins read
RBA Watch RBA set to hike in 2023 With the latest lockdowns set to end next month, we expect the RBA to taper its bond purchases in February. We still expect wage growth to accelerate more rapidly than the Bank anticipates and stick... 28th September 2021 · 8 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to stay the course The health situation in Australia continues to deteriorate, but the acceleration in the vaccine rollout means that lockdowns probably won’t last much longer. The Bank doesn’t believe that stepping up... 1st September 2021 · 8 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to delay tapering to November We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to respond to the worsening virus outbreak in Sydney by delaying the tapering of its asset purchases from September to November. Even so, we still expect those... 28th July 2021 · 7 mins read
RBA Watch Flexible QE paves way for tapering in November The Reserve Bank of Australia will probably shift to a flexible form of QE at the upcoming meeting while keeping the weekly pace of purchases unchanged. However, we still expect the Bank to start... 29th June 2021 · 8 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to extend QE in July The Reserve Bank of Australia will still sound dovish at the upcoming meeting on 1 st June, paving the way for an extension of its bond purchase programme at the July meeting. But amidst early signs... 25th May 2021 · 7 mins read
RBA Watch RBA still likely to extend bond purchases further The Reserve Bank of Australia will revise down its near-term forecasts for the unemployment rate at its meeting on 4th May, but it will probably still signal that inflation will fall short of its 2-3%... 28th April 2021 · 8 mins read
RBA Watch Recent data not enough for the RBA to shift course In recent weeks, the Reserve Bank of Australia has continued to push back against expectations of monetary tightening. We think the RBA will keep policy settings unchanged at the meeting on 6th April... 31st March 2021 · 7 mins read
RBA Watch Policy to remain looser for longer The Reserve Bank of Australia will keep policy settings unchanged at the meeting on 2nd March and will probably push back against mounting expectations of policy tightening. 24th February 2021 · 8 mins read
RBA Watch RBA may end QE in April While the Reserve Bank of Australia will present more upbeat forecasts for GDP growth, inflation and the labour market at its meeting on Tuesday 2nd February, we suspect it will still sound dovish... 27th January 2021 · 7 mins read
RBA Watch RBA probably won’t extend QE any further next year The Reserve Bank of Australia won’t make any policy changes at its meeting on 1st December. And with the labour market improving much faster than the Bank had anticipated and the prospect of a vaccine... 24th November 2020 · 7 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to cut rates to 0.10% and launch QE The Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates and launch quantitative easing at its upcoming meeting on Melbourne Cup Day. We suspect that aggressive monetary and fiscal stimulus will pave the... 28th October 2020 · 7 mins read
