Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Early market optimism in Egypt already starting to fade Egypt’s financial markets initially reacted positively to the ouster of President Morsi at the start of this month. But as the dust has settled and the severity of the political and economic situation... 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf aid not a long-term solution to Egypt’s problems The aid that Gulf states have granted to Egypt since the ousting of President Morsi should be sufficient to cover the country’s external financing requirement for almost a year. Accordingly, the... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economic growth at its weakest since 2009 The Saudi economy slowed sharply in Q1, recording its weakest rate of growth since 2009. The oil sector was the main drag on growth, while the public sector was the only area where the pace of... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How sustainable is the Gulf’s fiscal splurge? We’ve argued for some time that the Gulf economies should outperform the rest of the MENA region over the next couple of years, in large part thanks to large increases in government spending. But... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The economic implications of Egypt's second revolution It goes without saying that there’s a vast amount of uncertainty about how events will develop in Egypt. But the economy looks more fragile now than at any time since the first Arab Spring revolution... 4th July 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: Weak growth even before the crisis June’s PMIs fell across the whole of the MENA region. But they do not take into account the political unrest that has flared up once again in Egypt and could weigh heavily on the economy over the... 2nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt's growth on shaky foundations The most surprising feature of the raft of Q1 GDP data released in the region over the past few days was that Egypt’s economy has continued to grow, despite the country’s political turmoil. However... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Reflecting on President Morsi's first year President Morsi’s first year in office hasn’t been easy to say the least. Unemployment is up, the pound has fallen and the authorities are no closer to securing an IMF agreement. These promise to make... 28th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian markets in turmoil Financial markets in Egypt have been hit by a triple whammy of rising political tensions, growing concerns over the fiscal position and the continued deadlock in negotiations with the IMF. Equities... 26th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy appears to have slowed in Q1 Our Saudi Arabia GDP tracker suggests that the economy slowed to around 3.5% y/y in Q1. Encouragingly though, there are tentative signs that the slowdown bottomed out at the start of the second... 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: pound's devaluation has further to go In spite of the Central Bank of Egypt’s best efforts, it appears to be only a matter of time before the Egyptian pound breaks through 7/US$. And there is a growing risk that, without an IMF deal, the... 18th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What would the tapering of QE mean for the MENA region? Fears that the US Fed may begin to taper its third round of quantitative easing (QE) have led to a sell-off in emerging market assets over the past few weeks. The MENA region has escaped relatively... 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update MSCI reclassifications likely to have limited impact Financial markets have reacted positively to the news that MSCI has upgraded Qatar and the UAE to Emerging Market status. But we fear that the eventual benefit may be lower than some seem to expect. 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fears of inflation and unrest to frustrate subsidy reform Subsidies are becoming increasingly unaffordable across the poorer parts of the MENA region. But the threat of higher inflation and social unrest is likely to frustrate efforts at subsidy reform. 11th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Youth unemployment likely to have risen further Two and a half years on from the Arab Spring uprisings, youth unemployment in the Middle East, which was a key trigger for the unrest, remains high. In fact, we suspect it may have risen over the past... 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt's government finances need to be brought under control Ongoing political uncertainty has led to a sharp deterioration in the Egyptian government’s finances. The measures required to put them on a more sustainable footing are politically sensitive. But... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
