Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Further aid should help to stave off Egyptian default Continued delays to Egypt’s prospective IMF deal have raised the possibility of a default on its FX debt. A team from the Fund is due in Cairo tomorrow to discuss a financing package, but even if a... 2nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bond yields spike in Egypt as IMF deal looks further away Yields on Egyptian dollar-denominated bonds have spiked as an IMF deal looks increasingly distant and concerns over the government’s fiscal position mount. 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Euro-zone to continue weighing on North Africa The deterioration in the French, Italian and Spanish economies in recent months has caused the growth outlook for North Africa to worsen. Coming on top of continued domestic political instability... 25th March 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt rate hike a sign of desperation The Egyptian central bank’s move to raise interest rates in spite of the weak economy shows that policymakers have run out of options. Capital controls and FX intervention haven’t been sufficient to... 21st March 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update High food inflation could lead to subsidy reform slippage Food inflation in the resource-poor Arab countries should peak in the coming months, albeit at high rates, before falling back in early 2014. But in the near-term, the risk that high inflation... 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How much will Saudi Arabia benefit from strong Asian growth? Saudi Arabia’s growing trade ties with Asia bode well for the economy’s growth prospects over the coming years. While we expect advanced economies to remain sluggish, Emerging Asia should grow at... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia: political unrest and weak euro-zone dim outlook Continued political turmoil and the ongoing recession in the euro-zone will weigh on growth in Tunisia this year. Over the longer-term, however, if the political situation calms down and structural... 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt's IMF deal hits a snag (again) The IMF’s reservations over Egypt’s economic programme have dealt a blow to hopes that a financing package will be agreed in the short-term. This doesn’t necessarily mean that Egypt is now destined... 11th March 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: the pound's stabilisation comes at a price The Egyptian pound has stabilised since the beginning of February. But this doesn’t reflect an improvement in Egypt’s economic fundamentals. Rather it is the result of tighter capital controls. 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt's economy still in the doldrums February’s PMIs suggest that the Egyptian economy remains in the doldrums against a backdrop of continued civil unrest. By contrast, the Gulf economies appear on course to grow at a healthy pace. 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar's economy to be driven by buoyant public spending The French economy is set to fall further behind others in the euro-zone as labour market rigidity holds back competitiveness and household spending is hit by fiscal austerity. This might cause France... 4th March 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update External fragilities remain high in the non-Gulf economies Political unrest is increasing balance of payments strains across the region’s resource-poor economies. Egypt has grabbed the headlines, but there are also external financing concerns in Jordan and... 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE equities up on recovery hopes Equities in the UAE have rallied over the past few months on hopes that the economic recovery is gathering pace. Elsewhere in the region, the Egyptian pound has stabilised recently following the CBE’s... 26th February 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Morocco: bright outlook, twin deficits pose downside risks Morocco is set to be the best performer among the resource-poor Arab economies this year, supported by a comparatively stable political and macroeconomic environment and a rebound in the agricultural... 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt's capital controls could be a further drag on growth The depreciation of the Egyptian pound has slowed in recent weeks, but only because of a tightening of capital controls. If these remain in place for any length of time, they could present another... 14th February 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Sluggish Egyptian economy reduces prospect of IMF deal All eyes have focused on the fall of the Egyptian pound since the end of last year. But at the same time, the economy has taken a sharp turn for the worse. This suggests that job creation probably... 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
