Middle East & North Africa Economics Update External fragilities remain high in the non-Gulf economies Political unrest is increasing balance of payments strains across the region’s resource-poor economies. Egypt has grabbed the headlines, but there are also external financing concerns in Jordan and... 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE equities up on recovery hopes Equities in the UAE have rallied over the past few months on hopes that the economic recovery is gathering pace. Elsewhere in the region, the Egyptian pound has stabilised recently following the CBE’s... 26th February 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Morocco: bright outlook, twin deficits pose downside risks Morocco is set to be the best performer among the resource-poor Arab economies this year, supported by a comparatively stable political and macroeconomic environment and a rebound in the agricultural... 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt's capital controls could be a further drag on growth The depreciation of the Egyptian pound has slowed in recent weeks, but only because of a tightening of capital controls. If these remain in place for any length of time, they could present another... 14th February 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Sluggish Egyptian economy reduces prospect of IMF deal All eyes have focused on the fall of the Egyptian pound since the end of last year. But at the same time, the economy has taken a sharp turn for the worse. This suggests that job creation probably... 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Political stability needed to get Egypt's debt onto a stable path Continued unrest has led to a worsening of Egypt’s fiscal position over the past year or so and we estimate that fiscal tightening of 3% of GDP is needed just to stabilise the debt ratio. However... 11th February 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tensions with Iran to keep oil prices high for longer The high cost of oil reflects hopes of a strong recovery in demand at least as much as tensions in the Middle East. However, the price of a barrel of Brent probably still includes a premium of $10-15... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt's FX reserves fall below "critical" threshold The fall in Egypt’s FX reserves last month underlines the limited firepower that the authorities have to stem depreciation pressures on the pound. We think the pound could fall a further 10% or so... 5th February 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt's economy continues to suffer amid civil unrest January’s PMI data suggest that civil unrest and political uncertainty continue to weigh heavily on activity in Egypt. By contrast, the Gulf economies are growing at a robust pace. 5th February 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt's external risks mean policy easing is off the cards Growing strains in the balance of payments continue to prevent any loosening of monetary policy to support Egypt’s struggling economy. We don’t think there will be any scope to ease policy until the... 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Middle East Markets Monitor (Jan.) The Egyptian pound has fallen sharply over the past month after the Central Bank of Egypt loosened its grip on the currency. We think the pound could fall by a further 10-15% to around 7.5/US$... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi stimulus to keep economy buoyant Our Saudi Activity Proxy shows that the economy picked up modestly towards the end of last year. And looking ahead, government stimulus should keep the economy growing at a healthy clip. 22nd January 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The 'Arab Spring' - two years on Two years have passed since the start of the ‘Arab Spring’ and the economic progress that many hoped for at the time still hasn’t materialised. But while the transition process is likely to remain... 21st January 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fiscal deficits squeezing investment in resource-poor economies With all eyes on Egypt’s currency crisis, it’s easy to forget the fiscal crisis hitting the resource-poor Arab countries at the same time. Gaping budget deficits are squeezing out investment and... 16th January 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian inflation to rise - but not just because of the pound Fears that the recent fall in the Egyptian pound will lead to a sharp rise in inflation are overplayed. Instead, tax hikes and subsidy cuts are likely to have a much greater impact on headline... 15th January 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi stimulus to help economy grow at healthy pace The rise in government spending announced in the Saudi budget for this year reinforces our view that supportive fiscal policy should enable the economy to continue to perform well despite a weak... 14th January 2013 · 1 min read
